Αλέξης Τσίπρας: απόδραση από την κυβέρνηση ή από την ευρωζώνη;

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Γράφει ο Ζαχαρίας Λουδάρος

«Ρεπορτάζ των Times και του BBC, το οποίο η κυβέρνηση Μέι δεν κατόρθωσε να αντικρούσει, αναφέρει ότι δεν υπήρχε και συνεχίζει να μην υπάρχει σχέδιο υλοποίησης του Brexit στη βρετανική κυβέρνηση. Η Ελλάδα δεν έχει αυτήν την πολυτέλεια. Επειδή όλα είναι πιθανά κι επειδή αυτά που έγιναν φέτος φάνταζαν απίθανα πέρυσι, είναι καλό η χώρα να έχει στο συρτάρι λεπτομερές σχέδιο, σε περίπτωση π.χ. νομισματικής αναταραχής».

Αυτά -μεταξύ άλλων- έγραψε μέσα στη βδομάδα στην «Αυγή» ο βουλευτής του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ Γιώργος Κυρίτσης. Δεκαπέντε μέρες νωρίτερα, ο ευρωβουλευτής του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ Στέλιος Κούλογλου δήλωνε στον Αθήνα 9.84 ότι στην Ευρώπη έρχονται θύελλες και γι’ αυτό η Ελλάδα χρειάζεται Plan B. Στο πλαίσιο αυτό, αποφαινόταν πως αν μια μεγάλη ευρωπαϊκή κρίση ξεκινήσει από την Ιταλία, «θα πρέπει να κρυφτούμε πίσω από μια μεγάλη χώρα, όπως η Ιταλία, και να φύγουμε μαζί, διότι αν φύγουμε μόνοι μας, θα βρεθούμε και πάλι στο μάτι του κυκλώνα».

Θα μπορούσε ασφαλώς να υποθέσει κανείς πως αυτοί οι τόνοι δεν είναι παρά μια συνήθη επικοινωνιακή «ποζεριά» από εκπροσώπους του κυβερνώντος κόμματος και πως η «δραματοποίηση» είναι αναπόφευκτη, όταν τα πράγματα δυσκολεύουν. Ωστόσο, έχει σημασία το γεγονός πως ο συνήθως «ψύχραιμος» υπουργός Οικονομικών Ευκλείδης Τσακαλώτος απεφάνθη στην ομιλία του στο Ελληνο-Αμερικανικό Επιμελητήριο πως «Η κατάσταση είναι τόσο κρίσιμη, όσο ήταν και το καλοκαίρι του ‘15».

Τι τρέχει λοιπόν;

Από τον Σεπτέμβρη του 15 και μετά, το κυβερνητικό αφήγημα πέρασε από το «σκίσιμο των μνημονίων» στην «ελάφρυνση του χρέους». Παρά τη στήριξη του ελληνικού αιτήματος από τις ΗΠΑ και το ΔΝΤ, οι Ευρωπαίοι «κάνουν τους Γερμανούς». Προφανώς δεν είναι λίγο το γεγονός πως ακόμη και ο αντιπαθής κ. Ντάισενμπλουμ έχει αποδεχθεί την ανάγκη να γίνει κάτι με το ελληνικό χρέος, παρ’ όλα αυτά στην Ευρώπη γίνεται αυτό που θέλει ο Σόιμπλε. Οπότε κάθε συζήτηση έχει μετατεθεί για μετά τον «εκλογικό κύκλο» σε Γαλλία και Γερμανία.

Κατά συνέπεια, η ελληνική κυβέρνηση καλείται να κλείσει τη δεύτερη αξιολόγηση του προγράμματος χωρίς να έχει πάρει το παραμικρό σε σχέση με το βασικό αφήγημά της. Καλείται δε, εξαιτίας των γνωστών διαφωνιών ΔΝΤ – Ε.Ε, να νομοθετήσει από τώρα νέα μέτρα ύψους 4,2 δισ. ευρώ για μετά το 2018 ή τουλάχιστον την πολιτική συμφωνία για ένα τέτοιο πακέτο παρεμβάσεων. Το ζήτημα μπαίνει στο τραπέζι από το ΔΝΤ, με την Αθήνα να αρνείται και να αφήνει ανοικτό ακόμα και το ενδεχόμενο και πολιτικών εξελίξεων, εάν οι δανειστές της χώρας επιμείνουν. «Καμία κυβέρνηση δεν θα δεχόταν τέτοιο πακέτο», σύμφωνα με κυβερνητικό παράγοντα, σύμφωνα με τον οποίο «θα ήταν αντιδημοκρατικό να συμφωνηθούν από τώρα νέα μέτρα για το 2019, δεδομένου ότι πρόκειται για έτος εκλογών και δεν μπορεί να δεσμεύσει η σημερινή κυβέρνηση την επόμενη.».

Μήπως, λοιπόν, γίνεται ρεαλιστικό το σενάριο της «μεγάλης απόδρασης» από την κυβερνητική εξουσία του Αλέξη Τσίπρα και της κυβέρνησης;

Κάθε φορά που επανέρχεται αυτό το σενάριο, ως αιτία προβάλλεται ότι τα μέτρα ξεπερνούν τα όρια αντοχής της κυβέρνησης. Όμως το μέγεθος «όρια αντοχής» είναι σχετικό και μεταβαλλόμενο.

Το κυβερνών κόμμα έχει ήδη απωλέσει μεγάλο μέρος της επιρροής του και είναι σε διαδικασία ραγδαίας «πασοκοποίησης», δηλαδή ραγδαίας απώλειας δημοσκοπικών ποσοστών που θυμίζουν την πολιτική κατάρρευση του ΠΑΣΟΚ από τα υψηλά του 44% του 2009 στα χαμηλά κάτω από 10% την τελευταία διετία. Το δεδομένο αυτό υπάρχει ανεξάρτητα από τη νέα αξιολόγηση. Ακόμη και αν αφαιρέσει όλους τους άλλους παράγοντες και κρίνει αποκλειστικά με το κριτήριο των δημοσκοπικών επιδόσεων, ο Αλέξης Τσίπρας γνωρίζει ότι αν πάει τώρα σε εκλογές για να φορτώσει το 4ο μνημόνιο στον Κ. Μητσοτάκη, θα καταγράψει και εκλογική κατάρρευση και πολιτική φυγομαχία ταυτόχρονα. Ο ίδιος θα έχει τελειώσει πολιτικά, ο δε ΣΥΡΙΖΑ, ανεξάρτητα από το σκορ που θα κάνει στις εκλογές, θα έχει μεσοπρόθεσμα την τύχη όχι του ΠΑΣΟΚ αλλά ακόμη χειρότερα της ΔΗΜΑΡ.

Ο Αλέξης Τσίπρας διαχειρίζεται ένα και μόνο πολιτικό κεφάλαιο: την έξοδο από το τούνελ. Αφού η αριστερή κυβέρνησή του υποχρεώθηκε κατά τη δική της αφήγηση να υπογράψει μνημόνια και μέτρα που δεν πιστεύει για να αποφευχθούν τα χειρότερα, μόνο μία νομιμοποίηση μπορεί να διεκδικήσει: ότι «στο τέλος της μέρας» αυτό θα οδηγήσει τουλάχιστον σε κάποιου είδους έξοδο από το τούνελ. Παρόλο λοιπόν που, έχοντας εισέλθει σε ταραχώδεις καιρούς, κανείς δεν μπορεί να αποκλείσει οποιαδήποτε εξέλιξη, οι συντριπτικά μεγαλύτερες πιθανότητες είναι το «Ναι σε όλα» στις απαιτήσεις των δανειστών. Με την ελπίδα ότι τα βραχυπρόθεσμα μέτρα για το χρέος, η εκκίνηση της συζήτησης για τα μεσοπρόθεσμα, η είσοδος των ελληνικών ομολόγων στο πρόγραμμα της ποσοτικής χαλάρωσης της ΕΚΤ και η -έστω και ασθενική- έξοδος από τον κύκλο της ύφεσης από το 2017, θα αλλάξουν το κλίμα και θα «υποστηρίξουν» την αφήγηση ότι οι θυσίες πιάνουν τόπο.

Εναλλακτικά, αν ενσκήψει μείζων ευρωπαϊκή αναταραχή, πιθανότατα θα ανέβει στη σκηνή ένα άλλο έργο: Η απόδραση όχι του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ από την κυβέρνηση αλλά της Ελλάδας από την Ευρωζώνη! Αλλά αυτό το σενάριο ισοδυναμεί με ένα γενναίο πολιτικό restart για όλες τις πολιτικές δυνάμεις. Αν τέτοιες εξελίξεις προκληθούν με ευθύνη άλλων, τότε θα έχει πιθανότατα και ο Αλέξης Τσίπρας μια δεύτερη ευκαιρία: είτε να αποδειχτεί καλός μάνατζερ μιας τέτοιας «απόδρασης», είτε να κρυφτεί αξιοπρεπώς πίσω από μια κυβέρνηση εθνικής ενότητας…

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