Αν δεν πάει καλά η ΔΕΘ, χαθήκαμε…

Ratatoulis
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 Ακόμα και για τους αμύητους είναι σαφές ότι η κυβέρνηση έχει πέσει με τα μούτρα στην προετοιμασία της ΔΕΘ, καθώς οι ανακοινώσεις του πρωθυπουργού θα σηματοδοτήσουν και την ατζέντα, με την οποία θα πάει σε εκλογές, όπως όλα δείχνουν πλέον εντός του 2019.

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Και είναι θεμελιώδης για τον ΣΥΡΙΖΑ η φετινή ΔΕΘ, γιατί έχει παγιωθεί σε χαμηλά ποσοστά, με τα οποία δεν θα μπορεί να είναι αξιόμαχος, όταν έρθει η ώρα της κάλπης. Εξηγούμαι, γιατί οι δημοσκόποι έχουν αρχίσει και βλέπουν τις πρώτες φθινοπωρινές τιμές. Η ΝΔ είναι καθαρά πρώτη, γράφοντας ήδη «3» μπροστά από την πρόθεση ψήφου. Όπως είναι σαφές, συνεπώς, αν γίνουν και οι απαραίτητες αναγωγές, διαμορφώνεται συνθήκη ενδεχόμενης αυτοδυναμίας για την οδό Πειραιώς.

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Στο Μαξίμου δεν πιστεύουν ότι αυτό θα συμβεί. Εκτιμούν, δε, ότι με τις ανακοινώσεις του πρωθυπουργού, με τις θετικές εξελίξεις στα εργασιακά που θα φέρουν σταδιακά και μικρές αυξήσεις μισθών κ.ο.κ. θα καταφέρουν να ροκανίσουν σημαντικά το προβάδισμα της ΝΔ. Ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ, όμως, ακόμα είναι σε πολύ χαμηλά επίπεδα. Έχει το «2» μπροστά στο ποσοστό του, παρά την τρομερή δοκιμασία στο Μάτι. Με άλλα λόγια ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ παραμένει σταθερά και μακράν ο δεύτερος πυλώνας του πολιτικού συστήματος. Έχει περιθώριο να πάρει ψήφους; Έχει, αν και παρουσιάζει ελαφρά βελτιωμένη συσπείρωση, αλλά δεν έχει αξιοσημείωτες καινούργιες εισροές ψηφοφόρων. Με άλλα λόγια, όχι απλά χάνει, αλλά δεν παίρνει και από άλλες πλευρές.

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Στα μικρότερα κόμματα, Χρυσή Αυγή, ΚΙΝ.ΑΛ. (με δημοσκοπική κόπωση) και ΚΚΕ (με εισροές από τον ΣΥΡΙΖΑ) δίνουν τη μάχη της τρίτης θέσης. Μάχη, δε, για να μπει στη Βουλή δίνει η Ένωση Κεντρώων (με τάση για να μπει), ενώ οι ΑΝΕΛ, είναι χαμηλότερα, στην περιοχή του 2%, με διαρροή ψήφων τόσο προς τη ΝΔ όσο και προς τον ΣΥΡΙΖΑ.

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Και, τέλος, ενδιαφέρον έχει η κινητικότητα στον χώρο της Δεξιάς, με το κόμμα του Κυριάκου Βελόπουλου να καταγράφει καλά ποσοστά, ιδίως στη Βόρεια Ελλάδα, αλλά πολίτες να απαντούν αυθόρμητα και ότι θα ψηφίσουν είτε τον ΛΑΟΣ του Γιώργου Καρατζαφέρη είτε τη Νέα Δεξιά του Φαήλου Κρανιδιώτη.

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Συνεπώς, με βάση αυτά τα δημοσκοπικά δεδομένα, η τελευταία, μεγάλη μάχη της κυβέρνησης είναι η ΔΕΘ. Αν παρέλθει ανεκμετάλλευτη, τότε η δυναμική της ΝΔ θα είναι εξαιρετικά δύσκολο να ανακοπεί.

Ψυχραιμία στο Βερολίνο πριν την καταιγίδα

Επικοινώνησα αυτές τις μέρες με πηγή μου πέριξ της γερμανικής Καγκελαρίας, ήτοι εντός της Bundestag. Άνθρωπος που ξέρει καλά τις εσωτερικές ισορροπίες της επιτροπής προϋπολογισμού της γερμανικής Βουλής. Μου εξήγησε ότι η ελληνική πλευρά έχει ενημερώσει τη γερμανική ότι θα κάνει μεν παροχές, σε μια προσπάθεια να καταλάβει ο κόσμος την επιστροφή στην ανάπτυξη, αλλά πάντα με σεβασμό στον υφιστάμενο δημοσιονομικό χώρο και όχι ξεπερνώντας τον. Έχει, δε, δεσμευτεί η Αθήνα ότι δεν θα υπαναχωρήσει σε μεταρρυθμίσεις. Και, σε αυτό το πλαίσιο, επειδή ρώτησα, ο άνθρωπός μου θύμισε ότι οι Γερμανοί θεωρούν την περικοπή των συντάξεων διαρθρωτικό μέτρο, όχι δημοσιονομικό. Άρα, δεν τους ενδιαφέρει ιδιαίτερα το αν πετυχαίνουμε τον στόχο του πλεονάσματος με ή χωρίς την περικοπή. Τώρα, πώς θα τους πείσει η κυβέρνηση -γιατι δεν τους έχει πείσει-, θα το δούμε τις επόμενες εβδομάδες…

Η Κατερίνα…πρόεδρος

Εντάξει, το τι συμβαίνει στη ΔΕΘ είναι λίγο-πολύ τετριμμένο. Επισκέψεις αρχηγών, ομιλίες στο Βελλίδειο, συνεντεύξεις Τύπου. Φέτος, όμως, θα έχουμε ένα newentry. Σημειώστε, παρακαλώ, την ημερομηνία: Δευτέρα στη 13:00 να συντονιστείτε στις τηλεοράσεις σας, γιατί η πρόεδρος Κατερίνα Παπακώστα-που είναι ταυτόχρονα και υφυπουργός Προστασίας του Πολίτη-θα δώσει συνέντευξη Τύπου και μάλιστα δίωρη. Ως τι; Μα ως πρόεδρος της Νέας Ελληνικής Ορμής, του κόμματος που έχει δημιουργήσει και την προγραμματική συνεργασία του οποίου μελετά από κοινού με τους ΑΝ.ΕΛ. Να προσθέσω, δε, ότι θα δούμε και την Διοικούσα Επιτροπή του Ν.Ε.Ο. στο πάνελ και η είδηση εδώ είναι ότι…έχει Διοικούσα.

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20 απαντήσεις στο “Αν δεν πάει καλά η ΔΕΘ, χαθήκαμε…”

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