Απλά… και οικονομικά: Και τώρα τι θα απογίνουμε χωρίς αντιμνημόνιο;

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Γράφει ο Ηλίας Κάτρης*

Στα χρόνια της κρίσης πριν τις εκλογές του Ιανουαρίου του 2015, η Ελλάδα διχαζόταν με ένα δίλημμα: μνημόνιο ή αντιμνημόνιο; Στην αρχή το ΠΑΣΟΚ και το ΛΑΟΣ, μετά το 2012 η ΝΔ όλοι γίνονταν μνημονιακοί μόλις πλησίαζαν στην εξουσία. Μετά τις εκλογές του Ιανουαρίου και ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ και οι ΑΝΕΛ ηγετικά κόμματα του αντιμνημονιακού μπλοκ ξαφνικά υιοθέτησαν και έκαναν «κτήμα» τους (όπως χαρακτηριστικά αναφέρει το 3ο μνημόνιο) το μνημόνιο και εξέπληξαν τους Έλληνες –όχι όμως τους ξένους. Γιατί όμως υιοθετούν και αυτοί την ρήση του Γιάννη Στουρνάρα «Αν δεν υπήρχε το μνημόνιο θα έπρεπε να το είχαμε εφεύρει»; Μάλιστα βουλευτής του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ επανέλαβε πρόσφατα τη φράση σε τηλεοπτικό παράθυρο.

Πώς προέκυψε το μνημόνιο; Μνημόνιο δεν είναι ούτε τα 86 δις ευρώ του τρίτου πακέτου για την Ελλάδα, ούτε οι περικοπές σε μισθούς και συντάξεις, ούτε οι Γερμανοί, ούτε οι υψηλές ασφαλιστικές εισφορές. Το 2010 η Ελλάδα, όπως κάθε χώρα του δυτικού κόσμου, θα έπρεπε να δανειστεί χρήματα για να καλύψει τις ανάγκες της, γιατί όπως κάθε κράτος έπρεπε να πληρώσει μέρος χρέους και να καταβάλλει μισθούς και συντάξεις. Οι χώρες για να δανειστούν «βγαίνουν στις αγορές», δανείζονται δηλαδή πουλώντας ομόλογα με χαμηλά επιτόκια σε ιδιώτες. Το 2010 τα επιτόκια για την Ελλάδα ήταν πολύ υψηλά (άνω του 5%), γιατί οι επενδυτές θεωρούσαν ότι η Ελλάδα σαν οικονομία δεν είναι ανταγωνιστική και έχει μεγάλο ρίσκο συνεπώς μια έξοδος στις αγορές ήταν απαγορευτική. Μόνη λύση για να χρηματοδοτηθούν οι ανάγκες της χώρας και να μην μείνουν εργαζόμενοι και συνταξιούχοι απλήρωτοι ήταν να λάβει η χώρα δάνειο από άλλα κράτη. Και έτσι και έγινε. Η Ελληνική Δημοκρατία έλαβε τεράστια δάνεια άνω των 300δις. από τα ευρωπαϊκά κράτη (μέσω της Κομισιόν), από την Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα και από το Διεθνές Νομισματικό Ταμείο. Αυτό δεν ονομάστηκε μνημόνιο, αλλά δάνειο διάσωσης (bailout).

Και αφού δεν είναι χρήματα, και αφού δεν είναι μέτρα τι είναι τότε το μνημόνιο; Η Ελλάδα το 2010 είχε μια αδύναμη οικονομία. Για να βγει η Ελλάδα ξανά στις αγορές, θα έπρεπε να ανακτήσει την εμπιστοσύνη του κόσμου, να βγει από την ύφεση, να μηδενίσει το έλλειμμα, να νοικοκυρέψει το κράτος και τα οικονομικά του, να εναρμονίσει τη λειτουργία των θεσμών με τα ευρωπαϊκά πρότυπα και να διασφαλίσει ότι το χρέος της θα μπορεί να το αποπληρώνει στο μέλλον χωρίς πρόβλημα ρευστότητας και αποκλεισμού από τις αγορές. Έτσι, οι Έλληνες σε συνεργασία με τους 3 δανειστές (ΕΕ, ΕΚΤ, ΔΝΤ) έγραψαν την άνοιξη του 2010 ένα λεπτομερές κείμενο, όπου περιγράφει με κάθε λεπτομέρεια τους δημοσιονομικούς στόχους της χώρας για έλλειμμα, χρέος και ανάπτυξη καθώς και τις αλλαγές που πρέπει να γίνουν στη χώρα για να γίνει η οικονομία πάλι ανταγωνιστική και η Ελλάδα να επιστρέψει στην ανάπτυξη και να γίνει μια χώρα σύγχρονη και Ευρωπαϊκή. Αυτό το κείμενο ονομάζεται μνημόνιο.

Ναι, αλλά τα μνημόνια δεν ορίζουν τους υψηλούς φόρους και τις περικοπές; Όχι. Αν διαβάσει κανείς τα μνημόνια θα δει ότι στο κύριο μέρος τους περιγράφουν αλλαγές στη δημόσια διοίκηση, στην ανεξαρτησία των θεσμών, στην ΕΛΣΤΑΤ, στις τράπεζες, βελτιώσεις στην αγορά εργασίας, αγαθών και ενέργειας. Αν οι ελληνικές κυβερνήσεις είχαν επιτύχει αυτές τις αλλαγές από το πρώτο κιόλας μνημόνιο, η χώρα δεν θα χρειαζόταν να πάρει περαιτέρω δάνεια και θα έβγαινε νωρίτερα από την επιτήρηση στις αγορές. Οι ψηλοί φόροι και η γενικευμένη φορομπηχτική πολιτική δεν ορίζεται στο μνημόνιο και αποτελεί ξεκάθαρα απόφαση της κάθε κυβέρνησης, αφού πέφτει έξω από τους στόχους, επειδή φοβάται να πολεμήσει συμφέροντα και να προχωρήσει αποφασιστικά σε μεταρρυθμίσεις. Έτσι, αυξάνει τους φόρους που είναι και ο πιο εύκολος τρόπος για να κλείσει δημοσιονομικές τρύπες και θέτει τους δανειστές ως υπαίτιους για αυτό. Το μνημόνιο ορίζει τους δημοσιονομικούς στόχους μεν, αλλά όχι τον τρόπο με τον οποίο θα επιτευχθούν αυτοί δε. Τα δημοσιονομικά μέτρα πχ. αύξηση φόρων υπέρ του δέοντος και αύξηση των ασφαλιστικών εισφορών είναι μέτρα που πρότεινε η ελληνική κυβέρνηση κατά την συγγραφή του μνημονίου. Αυτό το επιβεβαίωσε εξάλλου και ο ευρωπαίος επίτροπος για οικονομικά θέματα, ο κ. Μοσκοβισί πρόσφατα για τα μέτρα του νέου ασφαλιστικού.

Οκ, αλλά οι τοκογλύφοι δανειστές μας καταδυναστεύουν. Αν η Ελλάδα έβγαινε στις αγορές θα δανειζόταν με 8% περίπου (spreads κοντά στο 800). Μετά το δεύτερο Μνημόνιο και τις απαραίτητες διορθώσεις που έγιναν στα επιτόκια, η Ελλάδα δανείζεται λόγω και του μηδενικού επιτοκίου της ΕΚΤ από τον ESM (και έμμεσα από τα κράτη μέλη) με 2,5% από τον GLF λόγω του Euribor με 0,65%!! και από το ΔΝΤ με 4,5%, οπότε το μέσο κόστος δανεισμού είναι 2,33% με διάρκεια ωρίμανσης 30 έτη. Πολλές από τις χώρες των «τοκογλύφων» δανείζονται μόλις για 5 έτη με πολύ παραπάνω από 2,5%. Να σημειωθεί ότι αυτούς τους αριθμούς τους δέχεται και ο πρώην ΥΠ.ΟΙΚ Γ.Βαρουφάκης, όπως προκύπτει από nop paper Eurogroup.

Το μνημόνιο ως όρος και ως κείμενο έχει χρησιμοποιηθεί τα τελευταία χρόνια, τα χρόνια της κρίσης ως καμουφλάζ για την ανικανότητα του πολιτικού συστήματος να αντεπεξέλθει να κάνει βαθιές τομές να αλλάξει τα πάντα, να μεταρρυθμίσει τα πάντα και να φέρει την Ελλάδα πάλι σε ρυθμούς βιώσιμης ανάπτυξης. Όμως πλέον το δίλημμα “μνημόνιο-αντιμνημόνιο” ξεπεράστηκε. Και τώρα –κατά τον Καβάφη- τι θα απογίνουμε χωρίς βαρβάρους. Πλέον, δεν υπάρχει καμία κάλυψη για την εξουσία. Οφείλει να νομεθετήσει και να εφαρμόσει μεταρρυθμίσεις προτού η χώρα -ξανά- οδηγηθεί προς τα βράχια. Μεταρρυθμίσεις, όμως, όχι αύξηση φόρων, μείωση κράτους, όχι προνόμια για τους ημετέρους. Ως τότε εμείς θα παρακολουθούμε με μεταμνημονιακή προσοχή.

Ηλίας Κάτρης είναι διευθυντής του Ινστιτούτου πολιτικών και οικονομικών μελετών «Κέντρο Αστικής Μεταρρύθμισης» στην περιφέρεια Αττικής και απόφοιτος οικονομικών και διοίκησης επιχειρήσεων.

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