Από ήττα σε ήττα, με παρηγοριά δηλώσεις για το «πρεστίζ»

rizopoulospostpost editorial 11/3/2016
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Γράφει ο Γεράσιμος Ταυρωπός

Στην πολιτική, όπως και στη ζωή, πρέπει να τα ακούς όλα, αλλά πρέπει να δίνεις σημασία σε αυτούς και αυτά που έχουν κρίσιμη βαρύτητα. Έχουμε προ πολλού προειδοποιήσει, για παράδειγμα, ότι πρέπει να ακούμε με ιδιαίτερη προσοχή τη γερμανική συνιστώσα του «κουαρτέτου» των δανειστών και ιδιαίτερα τον Βόλφγκανγκ Σόιμπλε. Διότι απλούστατα ό,τι λέει το εννοεί, μένει σαν βράχος σταθερός σε αυτά που λέει, απεχθάνεται τις επικοινωνιακές διαχειρίσεις και -κυρίως- έχει τη δύναμη να επιβάλει αυτά που λέει και πιστεύει.

Ύστερα, μιλώντας για τους δανειστές, δεν πρέπει να εμπιστευόμαστε ή να επενδύουμε κανένα σχέδιο ή καμία εκτίμηση σε επιθυμίες για αποχώρηση του ΔΝΤ από το ελληνικό πρόγραμμα, που στην Ελλάδα είναι ένα πολύ διαδεδομένο «σπορ». Όπως έχουμε επανειλημμένα εξηγήσει, υπάρχουν πλανητικής κλίμακας λόγοι για τη μη αποχώρηση του ΔΝΤ από το ελληνικό πρόγραμμα.

Πάνω απ’ όλα όμως, τόσο στην πολιτική όσο και στη ζωή, πρέπει κανείς να ακούει τη φωνή της λογικής και να μην εμπιστεύεται ποτέ και για κανένα λόγο την επικοινωνιακή σκηνοθεσία που συνοδεύει πάντοτε τις πολιτικές μανούβρες. Και βασικός κανόνας εδώ είναι να βλέπεις αυτό που πραγματικά συμβαίνει, αγνοώντας τον επικοινωνιακό ή πολιτικό «θόρυβο» που το περιβάλλει.

Παίρνοντας υπόψη όλα τα παραπάνω  και εξετάζοντας υπ’ αυτό το πρίσμα την πορεία των πραγμάτων το τελευταίο διάστημα, η διαπίστωση είναι πως τα πράγματα είναι πολύ πιο «ζόρικα» απ’ ό,τι δείχνουν και πως τι πιθανότερο είναι να εξελιχτούν ακόμη πιο άσχημα.

Ας πάρουμε τα δύο βασικά «μέτωπα», την αξιολόγηση του ελληνικού προγράμματος και το προσφυγικό, κι ύστερα ας εξετάσουμε και τις μεταξύ τους συσχετίσεις.

Προσφυγικό

Τι είναι αυτό που πραγματικά συνέβη στο προσφυγικό το τελευταίο διάστημα; Η απάντηση είναι εντελώς προφανής: έκλεισαν τα βόρεια σύνορα και θα παραμείνουν κλειστά για μεγάλο διάστημα, οπότε μεγάλος πληθυσμός προσφύγων θα εγκλωβιστείς την Ελλάδα, με την ελπίδα ότι «κάποια στιγμή κάπως» θα συνεχίσουν το ταξίδι τους προς την κεντρική Ευρώπη. Η πολιτική της κυβέρνησης υπέστη λοιπόν μείζονα ήττα στο ζήτημα αυτό, αφού ο στόχος δεν ήταν άλλος παρά να μείνουν ανοιχτά τα σύνορα ώστε οι πρόσφυγες να συνεχίσουν το ταξίδι τους προς τον τελικό τους προορισμό και να μην εγκλωβίζονται στη χώρα.

Το γεγονός αυτό είναι καταλυτικής σημασίας, ορίζει μια εντελώς νέα φάση του προσφυγικού και δεν μπορεί να διασκεδαστεί με δηλώσεις αξιωματούχων, οι οποίες «είναι για το πρεστίζ», όπως πολύ εύστοχα και πολύ εύγλωττα δήλωσε πρόσφατα ο κ. Σόιμπλε μιλώντας για την ελάφρυνση του χρέους. Ποια σημασία έχει ο «παρηγορητικός λόγος» της κ. Μέρκελ που κατακρίνει τις «μονομερείς ενέργειες» περί κλεισίματος των συνόρων; Αλλάζουν αυτές οι δηλώσεις σε κάτι την πραγματικότητα; Επειδή δε η πολιτική αφέλεια δεν επιτρέπεται, ιδιαίτερα μάλιστα στο χειρισμό κρίσιμων ζητημάτων, πρέπει να βγάλουμε το σωστό συμπέρασμα από τις προχθεσινές «δηλώσεις» (σχόλιο στο twitter, απ’ αυτά που λένε ό,τι πρέπει να ειπωθεί αλλά «ανεπίσημα»…) του προέδρου του Ευρωπαϊκού Συμβουλίου κ. Ντόναλντ Τουσκ. Ήταν μια «αδέσποτη» δήλωση αξιωματούχου, χωρίς βαρύτητα, και το θέμα έκλεισε με τη διορθωτική δήλωση της κ. Μέρκελ, που για άλλη μια φορά καταφέρθηκε εναντίον των μονομερών ενεργειών κλεισίματος των συνόρων; Τι δήλωσε ο κ. Τουσκ; Τα εξής εύγλωττα:  «Οι παράτυπες ροές μεταναστών κατά μήκος του Βαλκανικού Διαδρόμου τερματίζονται. Δεν είναι ζήτημα μονομερούς ενέργειας, αλλά κοινή απόφαση των 28 της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης (…) Ευχαριστώ τις χώρες των δυτικών Βαλκανίων για την εφαρμογή μέρους της ολοκληρωμένης στρατηγικής της ΕΕ για την αντιμετώπιση της μεταναστευτικής κρίσης». Τι μας είπε ο κ. Τουσκ; Ότι οι χώρες των δυτικών Βαλκανίων έβγαλαν τη «βρώμικη δουλειά» κλείνοντας τα σύνορα και λύνοντας τα προβλήματα όλων των υπολοίπων – πλην Ελλάδας. Ύστερα, κάπως έπρεπε να διασκεδαστούν οι εντυπώσεις. Όχι μόνο για να χρυσωθεί το «χάπι» για την Ελλάδα η οποία καλείται να άρει τις «αμαρτίες» όλων των υπολοίπων αλλά και διότι δεν μπορεί η «επίσημη» Ε.Ε. να δείχνει ότι συμφωνεί ή επαινεί με αποφάσεις που καταστρατηγούν ωμά της σύμβαση της Γενεύης για το άσυλο…

Αξιολόγηση

Ανάλογα είναι και όσα συμβαίνουν στο άλλο μεγάλο «μέτωπο», της αξιολόγησης του ελληνικού προγράμματος. Αφού έθεσε «κόκκινες γραμμές» (όπως κάθε άλλη μνημονιακή κυβέρνηση «που σέβεται τον εαυτό της» τα τελευταία χρόνια), αφού έταξε στους αγρότες «απάλυνση» των μέτρων, τώρα που ήρθε η «ώρα της κρίσεως», άρχισε η ταχύρρυθμη προσαρμογή στο… αναπόφευκτο. Οι ειδήσεις από τις διαπραγματεύσεις είναι πολύ… στενάχωρες: Το ΔΝΤ ανεβάζει το λογαριασμό των νέων μέτρων για την τριετία 2016-2018 σε πάνω από 10 δισ. ευρώ, οι «καλοί μπάτσοι» του «κουαρτέτου», δηλαδή οι ευρωπαϊκοί θεσμοί αφαιρούν μερικά δισ. ευρώ, αλλά μένει ένας «ογκόλιθος» μέτρων στην καλύτερη περίπτωση 6 δισ. ευρώ, από τα οποία σχεδόν ένα ακόμη ασφαλιστικό είναι για το 2016. Αλλά και στο ίδιο το Ασφαλιστικό, οι απαιτήσεις των δανειστών διαλύουν τις «κόκκινες γραμμές» της κυβέρνησης.

Τι θα συμβεί λοιπόν όταν έρθει η ώρα να υπογράψει η κυβέρνηση ένα πολύ χειρότερο ασφαλιστικό από αυτό που αρχικά παρουσίασε και ξεσήκωσε τόσες αντιδράσεις; Όταν αποδειχτεί ότι κορόιδεψε τους αγρότες διαπραγματευόμενη «απάλυνση» των μέτρων χωρίς να έχει τέτοια… εξουσιοδότηση; Όταν θα πρέπει να εξαγγείλει νέο βαρύ «πακέτο» μέτρων για φέτος και για τα επόμενα χρόνια;

Υπάρχει «αντάλλαγμα»;

Αν τώρα συσχετίσουμε τα δύο «μέτωπα», προσφυγικό και αξιολόγηση, τότε αποκαλύπτεται πόσο άσχημα είναι τα πράγματα. Κάποια στιγμή, οι Financial Times έγραψαν ότι θα υπάρξει «τράμπα» μεταξύ αξιολόγησης και προσφυγικού: το «κουαρτέτο» θα μαλακώσει τις απαιτήσεις του στο ζήτημα της αξιολόγησης σε αντάλλαγμα των δυσμενών εξελίξεων για την Ελλάδα στο προσφυγικό. Τώρα αποδεικνύεται ότι τίποτε τέτοιο δεν υπάρχει, αλλά αντίθετα διαφαίνεται μια διπλή, οδυνηρή ήττα κατά κράτος και στα δύο «μέτωπα».

Όσο για τα ανταλλάγματα, αυτά αφορούν μόνο δηλώσεις για «πρεστίζ». Έναν παρηγορητικό λόγο προς τους… χαροκαμένους, για να απαλύνει τον πόνο τους. Από τη μια, δηλώσεις για το «πρεστίζ» στο ζήτημα του χρέους. Πάλι ο Σόιμπλε είπε εδώ όλη την αλήθεια: η συζήτηση για το χρέος είναι για το «πρεστίζ», αφού αυξημένα βάρη τοκοχρεολυσίων θα υπάρξουν μετά το 2025. Έχει δίκιο! Εξάλλου, η ίδια η ελληνική κυβέρνηση μιλάει εδώ και καιρό για ελάφρυνση κι όχι για διαγραφή χρέους. Αν λοιπόν μιλάμε για ελάφρυνση, τότε μιλάμε για επιμήκυνση και μείωση επιτοκίου. Και πράγματι, αυτά τα δύο αφορούν κατεξοχήν το διάστημα ύστερα από το 2025.

Από την άλλη, δηλώσεις για το «πρεστίζ» στο ζήτημα του προσφυγικού: Προσέξτε πόσο… σκληρά επέπληξε χθες η Μέρκελ τις… άτακτες χώρες των δυτικών Βαλκανίων αλλά και πόσο… αποφασιστικά ανασκεύασε τις δηλώσεις του Ντόναλντ Τουσκ: «το πρόβλημα δεν λύνεται όταν ένας λαμβάνει μια απόφαση (…) Αυτό δεν είναι η λύση στο συνολικό πρόβλημα», δήλωσε σε προεκλογική εκδήλωση στην Ρηνανία-Παλατινάτο…

Έτσι σκοπεύει να συνεχίσει η κυβέρνηση; Από ήττα σε ήττα, με μόνη παρηγοριά για τους… ιθαγενείς δηλώσεις για το «πρεστίζ»;

 

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