Αυτές είναι οι προκλήσεις του ΝΑΤΟ – Τι αποκαλύπτει έκθεση

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Η αυξανόμενη στρατιωτική δύναμη της Κίνας και η σταθερά ισχυρή Ρωσία θα αποτελέσουν μεγάλες προκλήσεις για τη διατλαντική συμμαχία τα επόμενα χρόνια και οι κινήσεις του ΝΑΤΟ για την ενίσχυση των δυνατοτήτων του θα μπορούσαν να προκαλέσουν μια νέα κούρσα εξοπλισμών ανάλογη με εκείνη του Ψυχρού Πολέμου, αναφέρει έκθεση του ΝΑΤΟ.

Η έκθεση, η οποία καταρτίζεται κάθε τέσσερα χρόνια, εντοπίζει 20 παγκόσμιες τάσεις που ενδέχεται να επηρεάσουν τη συμμαχία μέχρι το 2035, από την τεχνητή νοημοσύνη και την επιτάχυνση της τεχνολογικής ανάπτυξης έως την κλιματική αλλαγή και την αυξανόμενη ανισότητα.

Ο στρατηγός Ντένις Μερσιέ, ανώτατος συμμαχικός διοικητής του ΝΑΤΟ (ACT), δήλωσε ότι, σύμφωνα με την έκθεση, υπάρχει υψηλότερος κίνδυνος σημαντικού διακρατικού πολέμου από ό, τι για παράδειγμα το 2013.

«Παρατηρούμε μια σημαντική αύξηση του ρίσκου μιας μεγάλης διακρατικής σύγκρουσης», δήλωσε συγεκριμένα ο Μερσιέ σε συνέντευξή του στο περιθώριο της Διάσκεψης Ασφαλείας του Βερολίνου.

Η διοίκησή του θα εκδώσει την ερχόμενη άνοιξη μια συνοδευτική έκθεση που θα χαρτογραφεί τι πρέπει να κάνει το ΝΑΤΟ για να ανταποκριθεί στις τάσεις αυτές, με τα δύο έγγραφα να αποτελούν οδηγό για την πολιτική καθοδήγηση του ΝΑΤΟ το 2019.

«Η πραγματική γνώση και κατανόηση του παγκόσμιου γίγνεσθαι είναι πιο απαραίτητη από πριν. Πρέπει να είμαστε έτοιμοι για κάθε είδους σενάριο», συμπλήρωσε ο Μερσιέ, σημειώνοντας ότι η παγκοσμιοποίηση σημαίνει ότι το ΝΑΤΟ πρέπει να σταθμίσει παράγοντες εκτός της περιοχής δράσης του, συμπεριλαμβανομένης της στρατιωτικής επέκτασης της Κίνας και της Ινδίας.

Η εύκολη πρόσβαση στην τεχνολογία και η παγκόσμια φύση του κυβερνοχώρου θα διευκόλυνε την επέκταση των τρομοκρατικών δικτύων, αποτελώντας αξιόπιστη πρόκληση για το σημερινό σχεδόν μονοπώλιο που έχουν οι κρατικοί φορείς στα όπλα υψηλής τεχνολογίας, σημειώνει η έκθεση.

Οι περιβαλλοντικοί παράγοντες θα μπορούσαν επίσης να παίξουν μεγαλύτερο ρόλο, από τα υψηλότερα ποσοστά φυσικών καταστροφών έως το αυξημένο άνοιγμα της Αρκτικής, συνεχίζει η έκθεση, όπως η αύξηση του παγκόσμιου χρέους και η έλλειψη εμπιστοσύνης στα χρηματοπιστωτικά ιδρύματα.

Σύμφωνα με τα νέα στοιχεία, οι αμυντικές δαπάνες άρχισαν να αυξάνονται μετά την προσάρτηση της Κριμαίας από τη Ρωσία το 2014 και οι εκτιμήσεις προβλέπουν περαιτέρω αυξήσεις μέχρι το 2045. Αυτές όμως οι αυξήσεις θα μπορούσαν δυνητικά να εκκινήσουν έναν νέο εξοπλιστικό αγώνα Ψυχροπολεμικού τύπου.

Ο Μερσιέ τόνισε επίσης ότι το ΝΑΤΟ εργάζεται ήδη για να επεκτείνει τις δυνατότητές του στον τομέα του κυβερνοχώρου και να διασφαλίσει ότι τα συστήματα κυβερνο-προστασίας έχουν αρχίσει να εγκαθίστανται σε κάθε οπλικό σύστημα και δίκτυο εξ’ αρχής.

«Στο ΝΑΤΟ, βρισκόμαστε υπό μόνιμη επίθεση στον κυβερνοχώρο», είπε, σημειώνοντας ότι η συμμαχία έχει αποδειχθεί “αρκετά καλή” στην προστασία της μέχρι στιγμής, αλλά οφείλει να παραμείνει σε επαγρύπνηση.

 

Πηγές: Reuters, NYT, FP

 

 

 

 

 

 

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