Bloomberg: Oχτώ ερωτήματα για την επόμενη ημέρα της Ελλάδας-Oχτώ χρόνια μετά το μνημόνιο

KRISI
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Με την 20η Αυγούστου -ημέρα εξόδου από τα προγράμματα στήριξης- να πλησιάζει και με αφορμή τη συμπλήρωση οκτώ χρόνων Μνημονίων, το Bloomberg θέτει οκτώ ερωτήματα για την επόμενη ημέρα στην Ελλάδα.

Θα πάρει η Ελλάδα ελάφρυνση χρέους;

Η Ευρωζώνη έχει συμφωνήσει να ελαφρύνει τους όρους για την εξυπηρέτηση του ελληνικού χρέους, αλλά οι διαφωνίες μεταξύ των πιστωτών παραμένουν. Στο επίκεντρο βρίσκονται τα ζητήματα ποια δάνεια θα αναδιαρθρωθούν, ποιο θα είναι το μονοπάτι για τα πρωτογενή πλεονάσματα και κυρίως αν η ελάφρυνση θα δοθεί προκαταβολικά και χωρίς όρους ή σταδιακά και υπό προϋποθέσεις.

Πόσο στενά θα παρακολουθείται η Ελλάδα;

Αν και η χώρα ξεκαθάρισε ότι θέλει καθαρή έξοδο, το τεράστιο χρέος της θα οδηγήσει σε στενή επιτήρηση για αρκετό καιρό. Η επιτήρηση αυτή θα είναι στενότερη από ό,τι σε χώρες όπως η Πορτογαλία και η Ιρλανδία και θα περιλαμβάνει τακτικούς ελέγχους αν και δεν είναι ξεκάθαρο πώς θα συνδεθούν με την πειθαρχία από την πλευρά της Ελλάδας. Ένα ισχυρό πλαίσιο που θα κρατά τη χώρα στα πόδια της είναι κλειδί για την επιστροφή στις αγορές δήλωσε τον προηγούμενο μήνα ο Μπ. Κερέ της ΕΚΤ.

Θα εμπλακεί το ΔΝΤ;

Δεδομένου ότι το ΔΝΤ δεν συμμετέχει στο τρίτο πρόγραμμα στήριξης, ίσως φαίνεται περίεργο να συζητά τη συμμετοχή του τώρα, λίγους μήνες πριν από τη λήξη του. Η αιτία έγκειται στο γεγονός ότι βουλευτές χωρών όπως η Γερμανία δεν θέλουν να δώσουν «πράσινο φως» σε περισσότερα δάνεια χωρίς τη «σφραγίδα» του ΔΝΤ. Επιπλέον, η συμμετοχή του ΔΝΤ θα σημαίνει ότι θεωρεί το χρέος βιώσιμο, κάτι που είναι πολύ σημαντικό στα μάτια των επενδυτών.

Θα είναι εύκολη η πρόσβαση στις αγορές;

Μετά τη λήξη του προγράμματος, η Ελλάδα δεν θέλει προληπτική γραμμή στήριξης. Βραχυπρόθεσμα, ως το 2020, οι χρηματοδοτικές ανάγκες μπορούν να καλυφθούν από πωλήσεις ομολόγων και μετρητά από το πρόγραμμα. Μακροπρόθεσμα, όμως, μπορεί να υπάρχουν εμπόδια και θα εξαρτηθεί από το πώς βλέπουν οι επενδυτές τη βιωσιμότητα χρέους και τις οικονομικές προοπτικές της χώρας.

Τι γίνεται με τα εξωτερικά οικονομικά ρίσκα;

Μετά από τη βαθιά ύφεση, η Αθήνα ελπίζει να δει διατηρήσιμη οικονομική άνθιση τα επόμενα χρόνια, παρότι υπολείπεται σε ρυθμό ανάπτυξης σε σχέση με την υπόλοιπη Ευρώπη. Η Κομισιόν υποβάθμισε την πρόβλεψη στο 1,9% φέτος και στο 2,3% το 2019, από 2,5% που ήταν η αρχική εκτίμηση και για τις δυο χρονιές. Η οικονομία της χώρας παραμένει ευάλωτη έναντι προβληματικών καταστάσεων λόγω αδυναμιών στην Ευρωζώνη, των κινδύνων που προκαλεί η αύξηση των επιτοκίων και η ομαλοποίηση της νομισματικής πολιτικής.

Τι συμβαίνει με τις τράπεζες;

Οι μεγαλύτερες τράπεζες της χώρας πέρασαν χωρίς προβλήματα το stress test και αυτό σημαίνει ότι περίπου 20 δισ. ευρώ από τα κεφάλαια του προγράμματος που είχε σχεδιαστεί να κατευθυνθούν προς τον κλάδο, είναι ελεύθερα για να αξιοποιηθούν για άλλους σκοπούς. Παρά τα αποτελέσματα, ωστόσο, οι τράπεζες αντιμετωπίζουν μεγάλες προκλήσεις, όπως τα μη εξυπηρετούμενα δάνεια, που είναι σχεδόν στο 50% του συνόλου, το υψηλότερο ποσοστό στην Ευρώπη.

Θα σταματήσουν οι μεταρρυθμίσεις;

Την τελευταία δεκαετία η Αθήνα διεξήγαγε σκληρές διαπραγματεύσεις με τους πιστωτές για τους όρους των δανείων. Η τεταμένη σχέση με τους δανειστές για τις μεταρρυθμίσεις έχει πλήξει την αξιοπιστία της χώρας σχετικά με το κατά πόσο θα μπορούσε να προχωρήσει στην υλοποίησή τους από μόνη της, κάτι που δημιουργεί ανησυχία ότι χωρίς το «καρότο» στην άλλη πλευρά, η χώρα θα παρεκτραπεί. Και παρότι η χώρα έχει εφαρμόσει πολλές αλλαγές, δεν είναι βέβαιο ότι η κυβέρνηση παραμένει δεσμευμένη για τις μεταρρυθμίσεις στην αγορά εργασίας ή άλλες δομικές μεταρρυθμίσεις χωρίς κίνητρα.

Θα περιπλέξει τα πράγματα η πολιτική;

Δεδομένου ότι κάποιες φορές, οι εκλογές δελεάζουν τους πολιτικούς να δώσουν υποσχέσεις που δεν μπορούν να τηρήσουν, κάποιοι αναλυτές προβλέπουν ότι οι κάλπες θα μπορούσαν να στηθούν στην Ελλάδα ακόμη και το φθινόπωρο, κάτι που σημαίνει ότι το ρίσκο δαπανηρών πολιτικών υποσχέσεων είναι μεγάλο. Η επόμενη κυβέρνηση θα είναι η πρώτη από το Μάιο του 2010 που θα είναι απόλυτα υπεύθυνη για την οικονομική πολιτική της χώρας και έτσι θα χρεωθεί οτιδήποτε θετικό, αλλά και κάθε αρνητικό, τόσο στις δημοσκοπήσεις, όσο και στις αγορές.

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140 απαντήσεις στο “Bloomberg: Oχτώ ερωτήματα για την επόμενη ημέρα της Ελλάδας-Oχτώ χρόνια μετά το μνημόνιο”

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