Δημογραφικό Πρόβλημα σε Ελλάδα και Ευρώπη, Προκλήσεις και Προοπτικές

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Με επιτυχία στέφθηκε η ημερίδα με θέμα «Το Δημογραφικό Πρόβλημα στην Ελλάδα και στην Ευρώπη, Προκλήσεις και Προοπτικές» που συνδιοργανώθηκε από το Ινστιτούτο Δημοκρατίας Κωνσταντίνος Καραμανλής και την Ομάδα των Ευρωβουλευτών της Νέας Δημοκρατίας, στην Πάτρα το Σάββατο 13 Μαΐου στο Ξενοδοχείο Αστήρ.

Την εκδήλωση παρακολούθησαν βουλευτές, πρώην βουλευτές και πολιτευτές του νομού Αχαΐας καθώς και εκπρόσωποι φορέων, ακαδημαϊκοί και πολλοί πολίτες από Αχαΐα και Αιτωλοακαρνανία.

Την εκδήλωση χαιρέτισε η Πρόεδρος του ΙΔΚΚ κα Ρόδη Κράτσα και εκ μέρους των Ευρωβουλευτών ο κ. Γιώργος Κύρτσος.

Η κυρία Κράτσα εξήγησε την επιλογή του δημογραφικού ως θέμα συζήτησης, λόγω της κρισιμότητάς του αλλά και της απουσίας του από τον δημόσιο διάλογο.

«Χωρίς την μελέτη του δημογραφικού φαινομένου, των αιτιών του και των προβλέψεων, δεν μπορούμε να χαράξουμε πολιτική για  το μέλλον της χώρας. Αυτό το μήνυμα θελήσαμε να στείλουμε στην Πολιτεία και στην κοινωνία σήμερα από την Πάτρα».

Ο κ. Κύρτσος επεσήμανε την οικονομική διάσταση του προβλήματος και πρωτοβουλίες που πρέπει να αναλάβει ο πολιτικός κόσμος για την αντιστροφή του φαινομένου. Συμπλήρωσε ότι η αποτελεσματική αντιμετώπιση της δημογραφικής κρίσης στην Ελλάδα απαιτεί έξοδο από την οικονομική κρίση, υπευθυνότητα, αποτελεσματικότητα, δημιουργική σκέψη, διαφορετικού τύπου επικοινωνιακή και πολιτική δουλειά.

Ο βασικός εισηγητής της ημερίδας ο καθηγητής του Πανεπιστημίου Θεσσαλίας, κ. Βύρων Κοτζαμάνης έδωσε μία πλήρη και συνολική εικόνα των δημογραφικών τάσεων κατά τις προηγούμενες δεκαετίες καθώς και σενάρια μελλοντικών προβλέψεων, τονίζοντας ότι η σημασία του προβλήματος το κατατάσσει πάνω από κομματικούς διαχωρισμούς και ότι οι αποφάσεις και οι στρατηγικές που θα αναληφθούν σήμερα, θα επηρεάσουν την δημογραφική εικόνα της πατρίδας μας το 2030 και το 2050.

Επιπλέον ο εκπρόσωπος του φορέα Διανέοσις κ. Θοδωρής Γεωργακόπουλος ανάπτυξε τα κύρια σημεία της πρόσφατης έρευνας που διεξήγαγε ο συγκεκριμένος οργανισμός, αναδεικνύοντας τα κύρια στοιχεία.

Τέλος, παρουσιάστηκαν συνοπτικά οι θέσεις του Συμβούλου του Προέδρου της Νέας Δημοκρατίας, κύριου Στέλιου Πέτσα, ως προς δημοσιονομικές επιπτώσεις του δημογραφικού προβλήματος και εξειδικευμένες προτάσεις υποστήριξης της οικογένειας, μέσα στο πλαίσιο μίας ευρύτερης αναπτυξιακής πολιτικής της Νέας Δημοκρατίας.

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ΔΗΜΟΓΡΑΦΙΚΕΣ ΠΡΟΒΛΕΨΕΙΣ ΕΙΣΗΓΗΤΩΝ

  • Ο πληθυσμός της Ελλάδας στο μέλλον θα μειωθεί σημαντικά, από 800 χιλ. μέχρι 2 εκατομμύρια.

  • Το 2050 ο πληθυσμός της χώρας υπολογίζεται ανάμεσα στα 10 εκατομμύρια (σύμφωνα με τα πιο αισιόδοξο σενάριο) και τα 8.3 εκατομμύρια (στο πιο απαισιόδοξο).

  • Ο πληθυσμός της χώρας γερνάει. Η διάμεση ηλικία, που ήταν 26 έτη το 1951, και που είναι 44 έτη σήμερα , αναμένεται να αυξηθεί κατά 5-8 έτη.

  • Ο πληθυσμός των παιδιών σχολικής ηλικίας (από 3 μέχρι 17 ετών) θα μειωθεί από 1.6 εκ. το  σήμερα σε 1.4 εκ (αισιόδοξο σενάριο) έως 1 εκ (απαισιόδοξο σενάριο) το 2050, αφού πρώτα όμως προηγηθεί έντονη διακύμανση τις δεκαετίες που θα μεσολαβήσουν.

  • Ο εν δυνάμει οικονομικά ενεργός πληθυσμός  (δηλαδή όλοι οι πολίτες ηλικία 20-69 ετών που δυνητικά θα μπορούσαν να δουλέψουν) θα μειωθεί από 7 εκ το 2015 σε 4,8-5,5 εκ το 2050. Σημαντικά θετικό ρόλο στην οικονομική Ανάπτυξη της χώρας, έχει η αύξηση του πληθυσμού της κατά 2% ετησίως.

  • Η Ελλάδα δεν θα αποφύγει να δεχθεί μεγάλο αριθμό μεταναστών κατά τις επόμενες δεκαετίες. Θα δεχθεί πίεση από δυναμικά δημογραφικές περιοχές και ταυτόχρονα θα χρειαστεί να καλύψει ανάγκες σ’ εργατικά χέρια.

  • Το δημογραφικό πρόβλημα στα επόμενα χρόνια θα έχει σοβαρές συνέπειες στην οικονομική ανάπτυξη , στο ασφαλιστικό  σύστημα της χώρας, όπως επίσης και στο εθνικό σύστημα υγείας.

  • Θα δημιουργήσει επιπτώσεις στην γεωπολιτική επιρροή της Ελλάδος και στην Άμυνα της χώρας.

Το δημογραφικό όμως δεν είναι ελληνικό μόνο πρόβλημα ,αλλά Ευρωπαϊκό. Η Ευρώπη γερνάει. Στις αρχές του 20ου αιώνα ήταν το ¼ του παγκόσμιου πληθυσμού. Σήμερα οι Ευρωπαίοι είναι το 8% και μέχρι το 2050, το ποσοστό αυτό θα πέσει στο 5%.

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