DW: Έρχεται καυτό πολιτικό καλοκαίρι για τον Ερντογάν ~ Τίποτε δεν σταματά το τρένο της Δημοκρατίας

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Σε αποκλειστικό άρθρο για τη DW ο πρώην αρχισυντάκτης της Cumhuriyet Τζαν Ντούνταρ, ο οποίος ζει εξόριστος στο Βερολίνο, εκτιμά ότι τίποτα δεν σταματά το τραίνο της Δημοκρατίας στην Τουρκία.

Από τότε που ο Ταγίπ Ερντογάν εκλέχθηκε δήμαρχος Κωνσταντινούπολης το 1994 παρακολουθώ από κοντά την πολιτική του σταδιοδρομία. Ήδη στην αρχή της καριέρας του δήλωνε: «Η δημοκρατία δεν είναι για μας προορισμός, αλλά μέσο. Θα παραμείνουμε όσο μπορούμε στο τραίνο της Δημοκρατίας και μετά θα κατέβουμε». Εκτιμώ ότι αυτή ήταν η πιο ειλικρινής δήλωση του Ερντογάν μέχρι σήμερα.

Εν τέλει ο Ταγίπ Ερντογάν αποφάσισε να κατέβει από το τραίνο της Δημοκρατίας στη στάση «πολιτικό Ισλάμ». Για περίπου 25 χρόνια εκμεταλλεύθηκε όλες τις δυνατότητες που του παρείχε η Δημοκρατία και στη συνέχεια άρχισε να την καταστρέφει συστηματικά: τη νομοθετική, εκτελεστική και δικαστική εξουσία, τα ΜΜΕ, τα ΑΕΙ, την κοινωνία των πολιτών και τελικά την ελεύθερη εκλογική διαδικασία. «Όλα μου ανήκουν», είπε, και συγκέντρωσε όλες τις εξουσίες στο πρόσωπό του.

Οι μισοί Τούρκοι θέλουν μια δημοκρατική και κοσμική Τουρκία

Όμως το κεφάλαιο της Δημοκρατίας δεν έχει κλείσει. Παρά το γεγονός ότι ο Ερντογάν αποβιβάστηκε, το τραίνο της Δημοκρατίας συνεχίζει το ταξίδι του. Μια στέκεται, μια προχωρά, κάποιες φορές συναντά εμπόδια, αλλά εξακολουθεί να πορεύεται. Ας μην ξεχνάμε ότι περίπου η μισή τουρκική κοινωνία θέλει μια δημοκρατική, ελεύθερη και κοσμική Τουρκία.

Το γεγονός ότι ο Ταγίπ Ερντογάν κατάφερε με τη βοήθεια δουλοπρεπών δικαστικών να ακυρώσει το αποτέλεσμα των δημοτικών εκλογών στην Κωνσταντινούπολη είχε μια απροσδόκητη τροπή. Για πρώτη φορά τα κόμματα της αντιπολίτευσης ξεπέρασαν τις διαφορές τους και ενώθηκαν για να αντιμετωπίσουν έναν κοινό αντίπαλο. Η πόλωση που ο προώθησε ο πρόεδρος Ερντογάν στρέφεται τελικά εις βάρος του.

Ποτέ η αντιπολίτευση δεν ήταν τόσο ισχυρή

Είναι όμως πολύ πρόωρο να προδικάζουμε το εκλογικό αποτέλεσμα. Μέχρι την επανάληψη των εκλογών στις 23 Ιουνίου απομένουν σχεδόν δύο μήνες. Γνωρίζω καλά τον Ερντογάν και είμαι βέβαιος ότι θα αξιοποιήσει κάθε ευκαιρία για να μην χάσει δεύτερη φορά. Όταν τον Ιούνιο 2015 στις βουλευτικές εκλογές μεγάλη μερίδα των ψηφοφόρων του γύρισε την πλάτη διέκοψε τις ειρηνευτικές συνομιλίες με τους Κούρδους ρίχνοντας τη χώρα στο χάος. Περισσότεροι από 600 άνθρωποι έχασαν τη ζωή τους σε τρομοκρατικές ενέργειες μέσα στους επόμενους μήνες. Τότε ο Ερντογάν υποσχέθηκε στους Τούρκους διέξοδο από την κρίση. Στις πρόωρες εκλογές πέντε μήνες αργότερα το ΑΚΡ κέρδισε επιπλέον 5 εκ. ψήφους και το πρόβλημα λύθηκε ως δια μαγείας. Το παράδειγμα αυτό δείχνει τι ενδέχεται να συμβεί μέσα στις επόμενες επτά εβδομάδες μέχρι την επανάληψη των εκλογών στην Κωνσταντινούπολη.

Τα προγνωστικά προβλέπουν μάχη στήθος με στήθος στο δήμο της Κωνσταντινούπολης μεταξύ του Μπιναλί Γιλντιρίμ (AKP) και του υποψηφίου της αντιπολίτευσης Εκρέμ Ιμάμογλου. Πολλοί πολιτικοί αναλυτές βλέπουν στο πρόσωπο του Ιμάμογλου τον επόμενο πρόεδρο της Τουρκίας. Δεν αποκλείεται η Κωνσταντινούπολη να είναι για εκείνον η αφετηρία μιας μεγάλης πολιτικής σταδιοδρομίας, όπως συνέβη πολλά χρόνια πριν και με τον Ταγίπ Ερντογάν. Η εκλογική αναμέτρηση στην Πόλη τέλη Ιουνίου επιφυλάσσει στην Τουρκία το θερμότερο πολιτικό καλοκαίρι εδώ και δεκαετίες. Απαισιοδοξία και ελπίδα εναλλάσσονται συχνά στην χώρα και ουδείς γνωρίζει εκ των προτέρων τι θα επικρατήσει τελικά. Γεγονός πάντως είναι ότι από τότε που ο Ταγίπ Ερντογάν αποχαιρέτησε την Δημοκρατία το τραίνο της κινείται ταχύτερα.

Πηγή: DW

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