Έρχεται το χειρότερο σενάριο για την χώρα;

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Γράφει ο Κωνσταντίνος Μανίκας, Οικονομολόγος – Ψυχολόγος, Συγγραφέας

Ποιο είναι τελικά το χειρότερο σενάριο για την χώρα; Αν θεωρήσουμε ότι η προοπτική άμεσης χρεοκοπίας έχει μείνει οριστικά πίσω μας, ορισμένοι θεωρούν ότι η πιο κακή εξέλιξη θα ήταν η αδυναμία εξόδου στις αγορές και η ανάγκη υπογραφής ενός ακόμη μνημονίου. Μήπως όμως τα πράγματα είναι λίγο πιο περίπλοκα αλλά δυνητικά πολύ πιο επιβαρυντικά για την μακροπρόθεσμη πορεία και την σταθερότητα της Ελλάδας.

Από την πρώτη στιγμή που ανέλαβε την εξουσία η συγκεκριμένη κυβερνητική πλειοψηφία επέμενα ότι η «αριστερή παρένθεση» εκφράζει ευσεβείς πόθους μας και πως η υπογραφή μιας συμφωνίας ήταν δεδομένη. Αφού για ένα εξάμηνο εκτυλίχθηκε ένα ιδιότυπο εσωτερικό επικοινωνιακό παίγνιο με το οποίο επιχειρήθηκε η μερική ικανοποίηση ενός μέρους του κομματικού κοινού.

Αυτού που ήθελε τα οφέλη της Ε.Ε, αλλά έλκονταν θυμικά κι από μια συγκρουσιακή επίφαση. Αυτού που θα δικαιολογούσε την μνημονιακή στροφή αρκεί να διατηρούνταν οι ταξικές διαθέσεις στην κατανομή των βαρών και η δαιμονοποίηση της ιδιωτικής πρωτοβουλίας και του κέρδους.

Σήμερα γίνεται το ίδιο λάθος από πολλούς αναλυτές. Η έξοδος στις αγορές και η φιέστα για την ψευδοέξοδο από το μνημόνιο τυπικά θα πραγματοποιηθεί εγκαίρως. Το δεκαετές ομόλογο κινείται ήδη γύρω στο 4,5% με συνεχείς πτωτικές τάσεις.

Αν και τα θεμελιώδη στοιχεία της χώρας δεν δικαιολογούν τόσο ταχεία αποκλιμάκωση, ο σχεδόν μηδενισμός των επιτοκίων δανεισμού των άλλων Ευρωπαϊκών χωρών, το γενικότερο ευνοϊκό αναπτυξιακό κλίμα στην Ε.Ε., η συνέχιση της παρεμβατικότητας της ΕΚΤ, η τυπική ολοκλήρωση του ελληνικού προγράμματος και η επίτευξη υποφερτών δεικτών (ανεξαρτήτως του τρόπου και της μακροπρόθεσμης βιωσιμότητας τους), δημιουργούν το κατάλληλο κλίμα για να επιτευχθεί ο βασικός στόχος.

Ποιο είναι όμως το κεφαλαιώδες πρόβλημα που κρύβεται πίσω από το φαινομενικό κλίμα ευφορίας; Έχω γράψει πολλές φορές ότι άπαντες μετέχοντες στον δανεισμό της χώρας δεν επιθυμούν την περαιτέρω συνέχιση της. Το ΔΝΤ ήδη αποσύρεται σιγά, σιγά, επισημαίνοντας την ανάγκη αναδιάρθρωσης του χρέους. Στην δε Ε.Ε. επιθυμούν το ίδιο, επειδή έχουν εξαντληθεί οι αντοχές των εθνικών ακροατηρίων πολλών χωρών και κυρίως της Γερμανίας που αντιμετωπίζει και την εκτόξευση των ποσοστών του AfD, αλλά η προσέγγιση στο θέμα του χρέους είναι πιο ψύχραιμη και προσφέρεται ως επιστέγασμα στην ολοκλήρωση του προγράμματος.

Το βολικό για αυτούς σενάριο αλλά με μια τεράστια παγίδα για την χώρα είναι το ακόλουθο:

Δημιουργούνται οι συνθήκες για κάλυψη των χρηματοδοτικών αναγκών του 2018 (περίπου 5 δισ.) από τις αγορές, προωθούνται παρεμβάσεις στο χρέος που υπό θετικές δημοσιονομικές συνθήκες θα μας επιτρέπουν την μη υπέρβαση του 15% του ΑΕΠ ως ποσοστού εξυπηρέτησης του χρέους και η χώρα θα αφεθεί να προχωρήσεις δίχως καμιά άλλη στήριξη ως θεωρητικά ικανή να αντεπεξέλθει στις ανάγκες της.

Η παγίδα βρίσκεται στο πολύ εύθραυστο των θετικών προβλέψεων. Δημοσιονομικά, με την ανάπτυξη να κινείται σε μέτρια επίπεδα και χωρίς να αποκλείεται να επηρεαστούν αρνητικά από ευρύτερες γεωπολιτικές, ενεργειακές και νομισματικές εξελίξεις. Τα πλεονάσματα να παραμένουν ιλιγγιώδη και ως ποσοστό του ΑΕΠ πολύ πάνω από το ρυθμό ανάπτυξης που σημαίνει ότι με την παραμικρή παρέκκλιση θα προκύπτει ανάγκη λήψης νέων μέτρων.

Χωρίς κανένα δανειακό μαξιλάρι και με την νέα άνοδο των επιτοκίων δανεισμού με το πρώτο αρνητικό σημάδι, η χώρα θα βρεθεί σε ένα αδιέξοδο που μόνη του λύση θα προβάλλει θα είναι μια εσωτερικής επιλογής δημοσιονομική παρέμβαση (μείωση μισθών και συντάξεων), δίχως να αποκλείεται μέχρι και ανάγκη ανακεφαλαιοποίησης με μέρος της να προκύπτει από επιλεκτικό bail in.

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