Eurobank: Στο -1% η ύφεση για το 2015 λόγω των capital controls

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Γράφει ο Γιάννης Κουτρουμπής

Οι συνέπειες που προκλήθηκαν στην αγορά από την επιβολή των περιορισμών στην κίνηση του κεφαλαίου είναι πολλές και σοβαρές και έχουν δημιουργήσει εκτεταμένα προβλήματα σε όλες τις επιχειρήσεις ανεξάρτητα της κατηγορίας στην οποία ανήκουν. Πέρα από αυτά πρόσφατα η Eurobank αναθεώρησε τις προβλέψεις που έκανε στην τελευταία έκθεση της για ύφεση στο -3,45% κατά το Β’ εξάμηνο του 2015.

Αναλυτικότερα, σύμφωνα με την επίσημη ανάλυση της Eurobank σχετικά με το ρυθμό οικονομικής μεγέθυνσης του 2015 η πρόβλεψη για την ύφεση αναμένεται να κυμανθεί στο είναι -1%.

Η αρχική πρόβλεψη των επίσημων πιστωτών και της ελληνικής κυβέρνησης για ύφεση -2,3% το 2015 ισοδυναμούσε με συρρίκνωση -5,40% του πραγματικού ΑΕΠ το 2ο εξάμηνο 2015.

Ο δείκτης κύκλου εργασιών στη βιομηχανία (σύνολο αγοράς) σημείωσε πτώση -18,29% (σε όρους ετήσιας μεταβολής) τον Αύγουστο 2015.

Οι πωλήσεις στο βιομηχανικό κλάδο της ενέργειας παρουσίασαν την υψηλότερη αρνητική μεταβολή, -36,26%, και ακολούθησε ο κλάδος των κεφαλαιουχικών αγαθών, -24,88%, και των ενδιάμεσων αγαθών, -1,05%. Αντιθέτως στον κλάδο των διαρκών και των μη διαρκών καταναλωτικών αγαθών καταγράφηκε αύξηση 36,28% και 2,91% αντίστοιχα.
Οι προαναφερθείσες θετικές μεταβολές οφείλονται στην αύξηση των πωλήσεων σε αγορές του εξωτερικού. Το ισοζύγιο τρεχουσών συναλλαγών (ΙΤΣ) διαμορφώθηκε στα 2.090,7 εκατ ευρώ τον Αύγουστο 2015.

Σε σχέση με τον αντίστοιχο μήνα του προηγούμενου έτους παρατηρήθηκε αύξηση 248,6 εκατ ευρώ. Η εν λόγω βελτίωση οφείλεται στη μείωση του ελλείμματος του ισοζυγίου εμπορευμάτων ( 381,1 εκατ ευρώ), εισοδημάτων (95,6 εκατ ευρώ) και τρεχουσών μεταβιβάσεων (11,4 εκατ ευρώ).

Από την άλλη πλευρά, το ισοζύγιο υπηρεσιών, παρά τη βελτίωση που σημειώθηκε στο ταξιδιωτικό ισοζύγιο (211,9 εκατ ευρώ), υποχώρησε -239,4 εκατ ευρώ κυρίως λόγω της συρρίκνωσης του πλεονάσματος του ισοζυγίου μεταφορών (-400,4 εκατ ευρώ).

Εν κατακλείδι, σίγουρα οι αναλύσεις είναι πολύ χρήσιμα εργαλεία αρκεί να χρησιμοποιούνται προκειμένου να εφαρμόζονται λύσεις για τα προβλήματα που οι αναλύσεις φέρνουν στο φως. Η Κυβέρνηση, λοιπόν, θα πρέπει να φτιάξει την πολιτική της αξιοποιώντας αυτά τα εργαλεία προκειμένου να έχει μία πλήρη εικόνα της κατάστασης που βρίσκονται οι πολίτες.

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