Έχει plan B η Κυπριακή Δημοκρατία;

kupros_planb
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Γράφει ο Γιώργος Ευγενίδης

Η εβδομάδα που ξεκινά σήμερα είναι ιδιαίτερα σημαντική σε ό,τι αφορά τις εξελίξεις στο μέτωπο του Κυπριακού, με κινητικότητα σε όλα τα επίπεδα. Στην Αθήνα, ο πρωθυπουργός καλεί για ενημέρωση όλους του αρχηγούς των κομμάτων της αντιπολίτευσης, προκειμένου να διαμορφωθεί μια μίνιμουμ εθνική γραμμή. Από την άλλη, Νίκος Αναστασιάδης και Μουσταφά Ακιντζί ξεκίνησαν για τη Γενεύη, όπου σήμερα εκκινούν εκ νέου οι επαφές τους πρωτίστως για το ζήτημα του εδαφικού, αλλά και για τα θέματα των εγγυήσεων και της ασφάλειας, με το βλέμμα στην πενταμερή της 12ης Ιανουαρίου.

Το βασικό ζήτημα που απασχολεί, βέβαια, και το Μέγαρο Μαξίμου είναι ότι παγιώνεται η εικόνα πως ο Τούρκος πρόεδρος Ρετζέπ Ταγίπ Ερντογάν δεν θα πάει στη Γενεύη και αντ’ αυτού εκεί θα κατευθυνθεί ο πρωθυπουργός Μπιναλί Γιλντιρίμ. Η Αθήνα έχει εκφράσει την πρόθεσή της να εκπροσωπηθεί στο ανώτερο δυνατό πολιτικό επίπεδο, πλην όμως η διαφαινόμενη απόφαση της Τουρκίας να μην πάει ο κ. Ερντογάν μπορεί να αλλάξει τους συσχετισμούς και ακόμα και να μην πάει ο κ. Τσίπρας. Πλην όμως, αυτό είναι κάτι που θα ξεκαθαριστεί άμεσα.

Το ζήτημα είναι πλέον πως επιλέγεται ένας τρίτος δρόμος για το Κυπριακό. Με άλλα λόγια, αυτές τις μέρες δεν θα κλειδώσει ούτε μια οριστική λύση, ούτε επίσης θα ναυαγήσει η όλη διαδικασία προσέγγισης, όπου έχουν γίνει πολλά επί της ουσίας ζητήματα. Η εσωτερική κατάσταση στην Τουρκία όμως, όπου ο κ. Ερντογάν έχει ελάχιστα περιθώρια ελιγμών λόγω της όξυνσης των τρομοκρατικών επιθέσεων και τη συνακόλουθη ανάγκη για συνεργασία του με τους εθνικιστές του Μπαχτσελί στην Εθνοσυνέλευση, προκειμένου να περάσει η συνταγματική μεταρρύθμιση για την αλλαγή του πολιτειακού μοντέλου της γείτονος χώρας, δεν επιτρέπει αισιοδοξία για άμεση επίλυσης της εκκρεμότητας, όσο και αν Λονδίνο και Ουάσιγκτον στο παρασκήνιο πιέζουν για άμεση λύση.

Από την άλλη, ο Νίκος Αναστασιάδης πήρε μια πρωτοβουλία μετά το Μοντ Πελεράν, όπου τα πράγματα δεν οδηγήθηκαν στο ευκταίο σημείο προσέγγισης: όντας σε συνεννόηση με τον Μουσταφά Ακιντζί και τον ειδικό διαπραγματευτή του ΟΗΕ Έσπεν Μπαρθ Άιντε επέλεξε να οριστεί ημερομηνία πολυμερούς διάσκεψης, προκειμένου μέχρι τότε να δρομολογηθούν θετικές εξελίξεις. Επρόκειτο για ένα σαφές ρίσκο, με δεδομένο πως, αν δεν υπήρχε η επιθυμητή πρόοδος, η Κυπριακή Δημοκρατία διατρέχει τον κίνδυνο σοβαρού πολιτικού και διπλωματικού εγκλωβισμού. Αυτό θα προσπαθήσει να αποτρέψει στη Γενεύη ο κ. Αναστασιάδης και η διαπραγματευτική του ομάδα, με διπλωματικές πηγές να εκτιμούν πως πλέον το καλό σενάριο είναι οι εργασίες στη Γενεύη να αποτελέσουν ένα σημαντικό ενδιάμεσο βήμα και να είναι συνέχεια της θετικής προοδου που επετεύχθη στο Μοντ Πελεράν.

Από την άλλη όμως, υπάρχουν και οι απαισιόδοξοι που βλέπουν τον κ. Αναστασιάδη να μην διαθέτει plan B ή έστω πλάνο για να αποτρέψει το τουρκικό plan B. Και μπορεί, όντως, και η Τουρκία να έχει συμφέρον στην επίλυση του Κυπριακού, για μια σειρά από λόγους, πλην όμως, οι δύσκολοι εσωτερικοί συσχετισμοί που προαναφέραμε καθιστούν το διαπραγματευτικό περιθώριο της τουρκοκυπριακής κοινότητας ιδιαίτερα περιορισμένο. Και, επειδή η Κύπρος δεν μπορεί να δώσει γη και ύδωρ, οι ίδιοι σκεπτικιστές βλέπουν τη διαδικασία να καταλήγει εκ νέου, έστω και μέσα από πολλά βήματα, σε φιάσκο.

Το ερώτημα όμως, το οποίο είναι σημαντικό από δημοσιογραφικής αλλά και εθνικής πλευράς, παραμένει: διαθέτει η Κυπριακή Δημοκρατία, επικουρούμενη από την ελληνική κυβέρνηση, εναλλακτικό σχέδιο ή σχέδιο αποτροπής τυχόν μονομερών κινήσεων της τουρκοκυπριακής πλευράς; Και είναι ιδιαίτερα κρίσιμο ερώτημα γιατί, δυστυχώς, μπορεί να το βρούμε μπροστά μας.

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