H φυγή κεφαλαίων από την Ευρώπη κι εμείς

money on the wind
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Είναι πλέον πασιφανές ότι μέσα στο καλοκαίρι «εξατμίστηκε» η αισιοδοξία η Ευρωζώνη βαδίζει προς την ανάκαμψη των ρυθμών ανάπτυξης και των κερδών. «Ξαφνικά» ύστερα από τον Ιούλιο, τα δεδομένα και οι προβλέψεις για τα θεμελιώδη οικονομικά μεγέθη επιδεινώθηκαν, ενώ η πρόσφατη έκθεση του ΟΟΣΑ διαψεύδει τις ελπίδες για άμεση επανάκαμψη των θετικών προοπτικών. Ο διεθνής Οργανισμός αναθεωρεί προς τα κάτω τις προηγούμενες προβλέψεις του του Μαΐου για όλες τις μεγάλες οικονομίες πλην Ινδίας, ενώ ιδιαίτερα για την Ευρωζώνη «βλέπει» ασθενική ανάπτυξη 0,8% το 2014 και 1,1% το 2015, αναθεωρώντας έτσι επί τα χείρω τις προβλέψεις του για ανάπτυξη 1,2% το 2014 και 1,7% το 2015. Ιδιαίτερα αρνητικές είναι οι προβλέψεις για την Ιταλία, για την οποία προβλέπει ύφεση 0,4% το 2014 έναντι πρόβλεψης του Μαΐου για ανάπτυξη 0,5%.  

Η επιδείνωση των προσδοκιών για την ευρωπαϊκή ανάπτυξη έρχεται να προστεθεί στη «νευρικότητα» που προκαλεί στους επενδυτές η επερχόμενη έναρξη του νέου αυξητικού κύκλου για τα αμερικανικά επιτόκια. Ο συνδυσμός τους προκαλεί διαρκή διολίσθηση της ισοτιμίας του ευρώ, που έχει χάσει πάνω από 7% έναντι του δολαρίου από τα υψηλά του Μαΐου.

Είναι το σύνολο αυτών των παραγόντων που έχει ενεργοποιήσει μια διαδικασία μαζικής φυγής κεφαλαίων από τα ευρωπαϊκά ομόλογα και μετοχές, καθώς διαψεύδονται οι προεξοφλημένες θετικές προσδοκίες σε όλους τους τομείς (ανάπτυξη, εταιρικά κέρδη κ.λπ.), ενώ η προσδοκία της αύξησης των αμερικανικών επιτοκίων κάνει ελκυστική και πιο ασφαλή τη φυγή στην άλλη πλευρά του Ατλαντικού.

Τα αποτελέσματα έρευνας της Bank of America Merrill Lynch για τον Αύγουστο, στην οποία συμμετείχαν 224 επαγγελματίες των αγορών με υπό διαχείριση κεφάλαια ύψους 675 δισ. δολ., ήταν εντυπωσιακά: το καθαρό ποσοστό των θεσμικών χαρτοφυλακίων που διατηρούν «overweight» θέσεις στα ευρωπαϊκά χρηματιστήρια διαμορφώθηκε στο 13%, πέφτοντας κατά 22 ολόκληρες ποσοστιαίες μονάδες σε σχέση με τον Ιούλιο.

Επίσης, σύμφωνα με ανάλυση της EPFR που έγινε για λογαριασμό των Financial Times, τα επενδυτικά ταμεία που τοποθετούνται σε χρηματιστήρια της Δυτικής Ευρώπης κατέγραψαν εκροές στις 9 από τις τελευταίες 10 εβδομάδες, περιλαμβανομένης της πρώτης εβδομάδας του Σεπτεμβρίου. Τέλος, οι εκροές από τα funds που τοποθετούνται στη βρετανική χρηματιστηριακή αγορά αυξήθηκαν σημαντικά την τελευταία εβδομάδα, καθώς οι επενδυτές ανησυχούν για το ενδεχόμενο οι Σκωτσέζοι να ψηφίσουν υπέρ της ανεξαρτησίας τους στο δημοψήφισμα της Πέμπτης. Οι εισροές στα μετοχικά αμοιβαία της ευρωζώνης ανέκαμψαν προσωρινά λίγο πριν από τη σύνοδο της Ευρωπαϊκής Κεντρικής Τράπεζας την προηγούμενη βδομάδα, αλλά σύντομα άρχισαν και πάλι να μειώνονται.

Όλα αυτά συνιστούν πλήρη αντιστροφή της εικόνας, καθώς από τον Αύγουστο του 2013 μέχρι και τον Ιούλιο του 2014 τα υπό διαχείριση κεφάλαια των μετοχικών αμοιβαίων που παρακολουθούνται από την EPFR αυξήθηκαν 50%, ξεπερνώντας το 1,2 τρισ. δολ., σε μία από τις μεγαλύτερες αυξήσεις από τότε που άρχισαν να τηρούνται στοιχεία, το 1998.

Τούτων δοθέντων, ποιες είναι οι προοπτικές; Αν τα οικονομικά δεδομένα της Ευρωζώνης για το τρίτο τρίμηνο του 2014 επιβεβαιώσουν τους φόβους των επενδυτών για τη συνεχιζόμενη καχεξία και αν, πριν απ’ αυτό, στο δημοψήφισμα στη Σκωτία υπερισχύσει το «Ναι» στην αυτοδιάθεση, ή αν υπάρξει μια νέα επιδείνωση της κατάστασης στην Ουκρανία ή τη Μ. Ανατολή, τότε ο κίνδυνος μιας ακόμη μαζικότερης φυγής κεφαλαίων από την Ευρωζώνη είναι ορατός.

Σε αυτή την περίπτωση, οι συνέπειες για την Ευρώπη θα είναι σημαντικές, αφού θα εισέλθει σε φαύλο κύκλο: η οικονομική καχεξία οδηγεί σε φυγή κεφαλαίων και αυτή με τη σειρά της εντείνει την οικονομική καχεξία…

Σε ό,τι αφορά δε «ημάς τους πληβείους», δηλαδή την Ελλάδα, θα πρέπει να ξεχάσουμε νέες «γαλαντομίες» των ξένων επενδυτών, που το προηγούμενο κρίσιμο διάστημα κάλυψαν με τις τοποθετήσεις τους τις αυξήσεις κεφαλαίου των ελληνικών τραπεζών ή την πρώτη ελληνική έξοδο στις αγορές. Εξάλλου, η αποτυχημένη δεύτερη απόπειρα για έξοδο στις αγορές ήταν ακριβώς ένα προμήνυμα αυτών των συνεπειών, καθώς συνέπεσε με την έναρξη της διαδικασίας φυγής των κεφαλαίων από την Ευρωζώνη…

 

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