Η πενταλογία της σημερινής πολιτικής κατάστασης: Μέρος τέταρτον, Πολιτικές Εξελίξεις

tsipras mitsotell
Διαβάστε επίσης

Μητσοτάκης Vs Τσίπρας: Όλα δείχνουν εκλογές εντός διετίας ~ Τι θα κρίνει το αποτέλεσμα της νέας αναμέτρησης 

Γράφει ο Σπύρος Ριζόπουλος

Όπως καταστήσαμε σαφές στις έως τώρα αναλύσεις της πολιτικής κατάστασης στη χώρας και ειδικότερα στα σημειώματα για την οικονομία, την εξωτερική πολιτική και το μεταναστευτικό αν και η Νέα Δημοκρατία κυριαρχεί στο πολιτικό σκηνικό και έχει επιβάλλει τη δική της ατζέντα υπάρχουν σημαντικά προβλήματα από τα οποία μπορούν να προκύψουν απρόβλεπτες συνέπειες στους επόμενους μήνες.

Όντως ο Κυριάκος Μητσοτάκης κέρδισε καθαρά τις εκλογές τον Ιούλιο και από τότε έχει επιδοθεί σε ένα μπαράζ φιλολαϊκών μέτρων και παροχών με ένα συγκεκριμένο απολύτως ορατό στρατηγικό στόχο: Να αφαιρέσει από την εκλογική πελατεία του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ και του Αλέξη Τσίπρα ένα μεγάλο κομμάτι ψηφοφόρων που προέρχονται από το ΠΑΣΟΚ και έμειναν εκεί όχι, πρωτίστως, για ιδεολογικούς λόγους, αλλά κυρίως γιατί φοβήθηκαν ότι η επιστροφή της Δεξιάς στην εξουσία θα σήμαινε τελικά απολύσεις από το δημόσιο, νέες μειώσεις συντάξεων, αύξηση φορολογίας κ.λπ.

Μόνο τυχαίο δεν είναι λοιπόν ότι ο Κυριάκος Μητσοτάκης μέσα σε 4 μήνες έχει προλάβει να εξαγγείλει μείωση του ΕΝΦΙΑ και της φορολογίας, χιλιάδες προσλήψεις στο δημόσιο, να ξορκίσει τις απολύσεις και να υποσχεθεί νέο έκτακτο βοήθημα τα Χριστούγεννα ακόμη και γι αυτούς που το είχαν λάβει προεκλογικά από τον ΣΥΡΙΖΑ.

Οτιδήποτε, δηλαδή, θα του εξασφαλίσει εκλογική πελατεία καθώς είμαι πεπεισμένος ότι ο πολιτικός του σχεδιασμός είναι η πρόωρη προσφυγή στις κάλπες εντός διετίας.

Ενδιαμέσως θα έχει προτείνει και εκλέξει Πρόεδρο Δημοκρατίας, κάποιον που «κυνικά» θα τον βοηθήσει να προσεγγίσει πολιτικά κοινά – εκλογικούς στόχους, ασχέτως αν θα έχει ή όχι ευρύτερη κοινωνική αποδοχή ή αν θα συγκεντρώσει ρεκόρ θετικών ψήφων από την παρούσα Βουλή.

Άρα, η Νέα Δημοκρατία βαδίζει προς τις δικές της εκλογές ελπίζοντας ότι δεν θα της στραβώσει κάτι στο διεθνές οικονομικό κλίμα, δεν θα υπάρχει κάποια κοινωνική έκρηξη για το μεταναστευτικό ή ότι δεν θα συμβεί κάποιο απρόβλεπτο γεγονός στην ευρύτερη γειτονιά μας, που θα μας επηρεάζει άμεσα.

Πολλοί θα υποστηρίξουν ότι αυτό είναι αυτονόητο για να κάψει τον εκλογικό νόμο της απλής αναλογικής με βάση τον οποίο είναι προγραμματισμένη η επόμενη εκλογική αναμέτρηση.

Θα το κάνει γιατί, όπως όλα δείχνουν, θέλει να νικήσει, ξανά τον Αλέξη Τσίπρα και να του δημιουργήσει εσωκομματικό πρόβλημα αμφισβήτησης.

Θα είναι η δεύτερη συνεχόμενη ήττα του πολιτικού που είχε αποκληθεί μάγος των πολιτικών αναμετρήσεων και αν αυτή η ήττα έχει τα ίδια ή και ενδεχομένως ακόμη περισσότερα ποσοστά διαφοράς τότε είναι προφανές ότι θα πρόκειται για στρατηγική ήττα για ένα κόμμα που προσδοκά να επιστρέψει σχετικά σύντομα στην εξουσία.

Ο Αλέξης Τσίπρας στον σημερινό ΣΥΡΙΖΑ δείχνει να έχει μεγάλο πρόβλημα γιατί είναι εγκλωβισμένος ιδεολογικά από το πυρήνα των κομματικών του στελεχών. Σε μια κλίματα από το 1 έως το 10 από δεξιά προς τα αριστερά, κινείται σταθερά από το 7 και πάνω. Και αυτό δεν του επιτρέπει πλέον, μετά από τέσσερα χρόνια διακυβέρνησης, να προσεγγίσει εκείνες τις κρίσιμες μάζες που θα τον επαναφέρουν στο Μέγαρο Μαξίμου.

Προσπαθεί να κινηθεί προς την κεντροαριστερά αλλά δεν του το επιτρέπουν οι αγκυλώσεις και οι ιδεοληψίες που επικρατούν στον πυρήνα του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ, που δεν έχει αλλάξει ουσιαστικά από την εποχή του 4%, παρά το γεγονός ότι έχει φύγει η ομάδα Λαφαζάνη.

Ο Αλέξης Τσίπρας πρέπει να αντιληφθεί ότι δεν μπορεί να κυβερνήσει ξανά όσο προτάσσει την ανάγκη δημιουργίας μιας μεγάλης αριστερής – προοδευτικής πλατφόρμας. Το πρόταγμα της λέξης «αριστερή» δεν δημιουργεί αυτή την εποχή στην Ελλάδα πλειοψηφικό ρεύμα.

Κι αυτό γιατί, κατά την τετραετή διακυβέρνηση της χώρα από τον ΣΥΡΙΖΑ αποδείχθηκε ότι οι στενοί συνεργάτες του Αλέξη Τσίπρα, με εξαίρεση ίσως τον Αλέξη Χαρίτση δεν είναι διατεθειμένοι να δουν τη μεσαία τάξη να… χαμογελάει. Και εξουσία σημαίνει μεσαία τάξη.

Αυτό φυσικά ισχύει και για τον Κυριάκο Μητσοτάκη που πέρα από όλα τα άλλα οι επόμενη εκλογική του επίδοση θα κριθεί τελικά από τις λύσεις που θα δώσει στο θέμα της υπερχρέωσης των Ελλήνων.

Υ.Γ:  Πολλοί με ρωτούν για το εάν η κυβέρνηση θα κινηθεί με την παραδοσιακή στρατηγική του18μήνου που σημαίνει προχωράει σε εκλογές με λίστες.

Θεωρώ ότι ο κ. Μητσοτάκης θα πάρει το ρίσκο, για να «υποχρεώσει» τους υποψήφιους να κυνηγήσουν τον σταυρό. Για αυτό το λόγο  δεν βιάζομαι να προδικάσω εκλογές το 2020. Πιστεύω σε αντιστροφή με τη διακυβέρνηση Καραμανλή που ήταν 4+2 ο Κυριάκος Μητσοτάκης θα προσπαθήσει να εξαντλήσει μια στρατηγική 2+4.

*Για καλύτερη κατανόηση του σημερινού άρθρου προτείνεται να μελετήσετε τα προηγούμενα τρία:

Η πενταλογία της σημερινής πολιτικής κατάστασης: Μέρος πρώτον, η Οικονομία

Η πενταλογία της σημερινής πολιτικής κατάστασης: Μέρος δεύτερον, Εξωτερική Πολιτική

Η πενταλογία της σημερινής πολιτικής κατάστασης: Μέρος τρίτον, Μεταναστευτικό

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