ΗΠΑ: Τριάντα χρόνια από το κραχ της χρηματιστηριακής αγοράς το 1987

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Στην 30ή επέτειο του κραχ της χρηματιστηριακής αγοράς το 1987, οι αμερικανικές μετοχές βρίσκονται σε ιστορικά υψηλά επίπεδα και οι επενδυτές ανησυχούν ότι οι υψηλές αποτιμήσεις ίσως σημαίνουν ότι έχει ήδη καθυστερήσει μια διόρθωση, παρά την υγιή κερδοφορία των εταιριών και την οικονομική ανάπτυξη.

Μπορεί όμως να συμβεί σήμερα μια επανάληψη της λεγόμενης “Μαύρης Δευτέρας” του 1987; Η σύγχρονη τεχνολογία διαπραγμάτευσης, οι αλλαγές στο τρόπο λειτουργίας των χρηματιστήριων και διαχείρισης των επενδυτικών κεφαλαίων καθιστούν μια επανάληψη του συγκεκριμένου κραχ απίθανη. Ωστόσο, κάποιοι επιφυλακτικοί χρηματιστές αρνούνται να αποκλείσουν το ενδεχόμενο αυτό.

«Έχουμε μάθει πολλά από τα λάθη του παρελθόντος σε ό,τι αφορά τις αντιδράσεις ή τις υπερβολικές αντιδράσεις», δήλωσε ο Κεν Πολκάρι, διευθυντής του αρμόδιου τμήματος για το χρηματιστήριο της Νέας Υόρκης στη χρηματιστηριακή O’Neil.

Την Δευτέρα 19 Οκτωβρίου του 1987, ύστερα από μεγάλη πτώση στα χρηματιστήρια της Ασίας και της Ευρώπης μια εβδομάδα νωρίτερα, ο δείκτης Dow Jones καταβαραθρώθηκε κατά 508 μονάδες, ή 22,6%, καταγράφοντας τη μεγαλύτερη ποτέ ημερήσια ποσοστιαία πτώση του.

Σήμερα μια βουτιά της τάξης του 20% είναι πιθανή, αλλά μάλλον θα γινόταν με πιο συντεταγμένο τρόπο, δήλωσε ο Αρτ Χόγκαν, επικεφαλής στρατηγικής της αγοράς στη χρηματιστηριακή Wunderlich στη Νέα Υόρκη.

«Έχουμε τη δυνατότητα να κλείσουμε τα συστήματα για λίγο και να κάνουμε μια επανεκτίμηση και να προσπαθήσουμε να βρούμε τον βέλτιστο τρόπο για να επιστρέψουμε στις συναλλαγές και να δούμε τα πράγματα πιο ήρεμα», δήλωσε.

Ως απάντηση στο κραχ του 1987, η αμερικανική Αρχή Κεφαλαιαγοράς έδωσε εντολή για τη δημιουργία «αυτόματων διακοπτών» σε όλη την αγορά που επιτρέπουν την προσωρινή αναστολή των συναλλαγών όταν ο Dow υποχωρήσει κατά 10%, 20% και 30%. Έκτοτε, μόνο μία φορά, το 1997, ενεργοποιήθηκε μια τέτοια αναστολή συναλλαγών σε όλη την αγορά.

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