Η άλλη όψη της απόφασης Τραμπ για την Ιερουσαλήμ

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Γράφει ο Γιάννης Κουτρουμπής

Με την απόφαση του Αμερικανού Προέδρου Ντόναλντ Τραμπ για αναγνώριση της Ιερουσαλήμ ως πρωτεύουσας του Ισραήλ, ξεκίνησε πληθώρα σεναρίων από την πλευρά των διεθνών αναλυτών σχετικά με το τι πρόκειται να γίνει μεταξύ Ισραήλ και Παλαιστίνης. Σίγουρα η κίνηση αυτή προκάλεσε ποικίλες αντιδράσεις, τόσο στην Ευρώπη, όσο και σε διάφορους διεθνείς οργανισμούς, όπως για παράδειγμα ο ΟΗΕ, οπού συγκλήθηκε άμεσα συνεδρίαση του Συμβουλίου Ασφαλείας.

Παρόλα αυτά υπάρχουν πολλές λεπτομέρειες που αν ληφθούν υπόψη βοηθούν στην αντίληψη της στρατηγικής κίνησης του Ντόναλντ Τραμπ και τα ζητήματα που συνδέονται τόσο μετην εσωτερική πολιτική, όσο και στην εξωτερική πολιτική των ΗΠΑ.

Σε ότι αφορά στην εσωτερική πολιτική, με την απόφαση της αναγνώρισης της Ιερουσαλήμ από τον Πρόεδρο Τραμπ πρόκειται να αλλάξει η ισορροπία δυνάμεων μεταξύ των Αμερικανοεβραίων ψηφοφόρων, καθώς μετά από δεκαετίες πρωτοκαθεδρίας των Δημοκρατικών πλέον διαφαίνεται η δυνατότητα των Ρεπουμπλικάνων να διεμβολίσουν το συγκεκριμένο κοινό – και βεβαίως την οικονομική και πολιτική επιρροή που διαθέτει.

Ένα δεύτερο στοιχείο είναι το τετελεσμένο που δημιουργεί η εν λόγω απόφαση είναι πρακτικά αδύνατο να ανακληθεί από οποιονδήποτε Αμερικανό πρόεδρο που θα αναλάβει μετά τον Τραμπ – ο οποίος άλλωστε εφαρμόζει αποφάσεις προκατόχων του. Έτσι λοιπόν η ανακήρυξη της Ιερουσαλήμ ως πρωτεύουσας του Ισραήλ, χαρακτήρα status quo.

Επιπλέον από την αμερικανική σκοπιά, λύνεται ένα διαχρονικό πρόβλημα, που αποτελούσε «αγκάθι» κατά την άσκηση της αμερικανικής εξωτερικής πολιτικής και που κανείς από τους προέδρους δεν μπορούσε να εφαρμόσει την απόφαση που είχαν ψηφίσει εδώ και πάρα πολλά χρόνια. Με λίγα λόγια «He delivers», δηλαδή υλοποιεί τις δεσμεύσεις του. Η εμπέδωση αυτής της εικόνας είναι κεφαλαιώδους σημασίας για το προφίλ του Αμερικανού προέδρου απέναντι στους ψηφοφόρους του.

Γεωπολιτικά, η κίνηση αυτή ερμηνεύεται ως απευθείας ανάθεση στον Νετανιάχου να λειτουργήσει πλέον αυτόνομα στη Μέση Ανατολή επιβεβαιώνει και το παραδοσιακά «απομονωτικό» πνεύμα των Ρεπουμπλικάνων στον τρόπο που βλέπουν τις διεθνείς σχέσεις.

Από την πλευρά του ο Νετανιάχου έχει κάθε λόγο να χαμογελάει. Απέσπασε μια κεφαλαιώδους σημασίας απόφαση η οποία δικαιώνει τον σχεδιασμό του και του εξασφαλίζει εύκολη επανεκλογή όποτε επιδιώξει προσφυγή στις κάλπες. Με την αμερικανική ευλογία, μπορεί πλέον άνετα να εφαρμόζει την επεκτατική του πολιτική και να προχωρήσει σε σκληρή καταστολή εν ονόματι της ασφάλειας τόσο των πολιτών του όσο και του ίδιου του κράτους του Ισραήλ.

Δυστυχώς, η περιοχή μπάινει σε νέα φάση συγκρούσεων και αυτή τη φορά δεν προκύπτει από τα γεγονότα οτι το σχέδιο για δύο κράτη στην περιοχή πρακτικά μπορεί να υλοποιηθεί. Αν οι σχεδιασμοί της Ουάσινγκτον είναι να κλείσουν τα μέτωπα στην περιοχή ανεξαρτήτως κόστους, είναι πολύ πιθανό αυτό να περνά μέσα από μια νέα, ευρείας κλίμακας σύγκρουση η οποία όμως ελπίζουν οτι θα είναι και η οριστική.

 

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