Η επιλογή Τραμπ μας φέρνει στην πρώτη μεγάλη «στροφή» του αιώνα

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Τι αλλάζει στο παγκόσμιο εμπόριο και τη διεθνή πολιτική σκηνή – Πρωτίστως η Κίνα αλλά και η Γερμανία στο στόχαστρο των ΗΠΑ – Τελειώνει η παγκοσμιοποίηση, όπως την γνωρίζουμε

Γράφει ο Ceteris Paribus

Η απόφαση του Ντόναλντ Τραμπ για επιβολή δασμών επί των εισαγωγών αλουμινίου και χάλυβα στις ΗΠΑ πήρε το δρόμο της υλοποίησής της. Για περίπου έναν χρόνο, ως τα μέσα του 2019, θα παραγάγει αποτελέσματα σε συνθήκες συντονισμένης οικονομικής ανάκαμψης σε όλους τους βασικούς πόλους του παγκόσμιου συστήματος: ΗΠΑ – ΕΕ – Ιαπωνία – Αναπτυσσόμενες οικονομίες.

Στη συνέχεια, θα πρέπει να μετρηθούν τα αποτελέσματά του σε συνθήκες κάμψης του κύκλου ανάκαμψης (που μένει να δούμε το βάθος της και κυρίως την έκταση των συνεπειών της στην «πραγματική» οικονομία και στις αγορές), δηλαδή σε πολύ πιο ναρκοθετημένο έδαφος. Πλησιάζουμε στην πρώτη μεγάλη «στροφή» του νέου αιώνα…

Οι αντιδράσεις της ευρωπαϊκής ηγεσίας ήταν αναμενόμενες: θα θέλαμε κι εμείς να επωφεληθούμε της ρήτρας εξαίρεσης από τα μέτρα (που θα ισχύσει για την Αυστραλία και τον Καναδά), αλλά αν αυτό δεν συμβεί, θα πάρουμε αντίμετρα – η Κομισιόν έχει ήδη έτοιμη τη σχετική λίστα. Ωστόσο, η έκφραση και η «γλώσσα» του σώματος στις σχετικές δηλώσεις, για παράδειγμα, της κυρίας Μέρκελ, δεν απέπνεαν αυτοπεποίθηση – και όχι τυχαία…

«Πόλεμος» για τα πλεονάσματα

Σε αντίθεση με τη γερμανική (και γενικότερα την ευρωπαϊκή) αλλά και την κινεζική οικονομία, η αμερικανική δεν στηρίζεται σε πλεονάσματα. Και είναι φανερό ότι η συγκεκριμένη «κόντρα» αφορά καταρχήν τα εμπορικά πλεονάσματα. Στο ξεκίνημα της θητείας του ο Ντόναλντ Τραμπ το είχε διατυπώσει με το γνωστό ιδιόρρυθμο τρόπο του: η παγκοσμιοποίηση δεν μπορεί να υπάρχει για να εξασφαλίζουν εμπορικά πλεονάσματα, εις βάρος μας, η Κίνα και η Γερμανία…

Ποιος κινδυνεύει να χάσει, ή έστω να χάσει περισσότερα, από έναν πόλεμο για τα πλεονάσματα; Μα όσοι έχουν πλεονάσματα, και ιδιαίτερα όσοι στηρίζονται σε σημαντικό βαθμό σε αυτά τα πλεονάσματα. Πρωτίστως η Κίνα και η Γερμανία. Ενώ η αμερικανική οικονομία στηρίζεται κυρίως στην εσωτερική οικονομική δυναμική, η γερμανική στηρίζεται κατά 30% στον εξαγωγικό τομέα, ενώ ανάλογα ισχύουν για την κινεζική οικονομία.

Στην κινεζική οικονομία έχει ήδη αρχίσει να υλοποιείται μια στροφή στην εσωτερική ζήτηση, αλλά θέλει χρόνο για να υλοποιηθεί – η κινεζική οικονομία είναι ακόμη εξαρτημένη από τα μεγάλα εμπορικά πλεονάσματα.

Για τη γερμανική τα πράγματα είναι ακόμη χειρότερα: η διαδικασία υποκατάστασης της εξωτερικής ζήτησης από την εσωτερική δεν έχει καν ξεκινήσει. Μεταξύ άλλων, η σημαντική αύξηση της εσωτερικής ζήτησης προϋποθέτει και συνεπάγεται την αύξηση των μισθών, δηλαδή ένα αποφασιστικό χτύπημα στο γερμανικό υπόδειγμα «προτεσταντικής» λιτότητας που η Γερμανία έχει εξαγάγει σε όλη την Ευρώπη.

Όταν οι Κινέζοι και Ευρωπαίοι ηγέτες απειλούν ότι θα απαντήσουν στα μέτρα προστατευτισμού του Τραμπ με αντίμετρα προστατευτισμού, λένε κάτι που φαίνεται προφανές αλλά δεν είναι. Το μεγάλο ζήτημα δεν είναι τα αντίμετρα, αλλά ότι υποχρεώνονται να μετατοπίσουν το οικονομικό τους υπόδειγμα στην κατεύθυνση της εσωτερικής ζήτησης. Η Κίνα άρχισε ήδη να το κάνει, αλλά θέλει ακόμη χρόνο. Η Γερμανία δεν έχει ξεκινήσει καν, η δε βασική προϋπόθεση μιας τέτοιας στροφής (αύξηση της εσωτερικής ζήτησης = αύξηση μισθών) προσκρούει στη γενικότερη γερμανική ευρωπαϊκή πολιτική.

Αλλά δεν πρόκειται μόνο γι’ αυτό. Για την Κίνα και τη Γερμανία δεν είναι το ίδιο εύκολο με τις ΗΠΑ να θέσουν σε σοβαρό κίνδυνο την παγκοσμιοποίηση. Αντίμετρα ασφαλώς θα υπάρξουν, αν όχι για λόγους ανταπόδοσης του «χτυπήματος», τουλάχιστον για λόγους πολιτικής αξιοπρέπειας. Ωστόσο, όσοι ζουν βυζαίνοντας την αγελάδα της παγκοσμιοποίησης, δηλαδή η Κίνα και η Γερμανία, δεν μπορούν να κλιμακώσουν έναν εμπορικό πόλεμο που θα τη σκοτώσει. Σε αυτό το ζήτημα, μόνο οι ΗΠΑ μπορούν να έχουν το «ακαταλόγιστο» και να συμπεριφέρονται σαν «τρελοί» του «παγκόσμιου χωριού»…

Δυτικό «στρατόπεδο» τέλος – Διεθνείς σχέσεις α λα καρτ…

Η σημειολογία της απόφασης Τραμπ είναι ευρύτερη του ζητήματος των πλεονασμάτων, επεκτεινόμενη γενικότερα σε ζητήματα διεθνών σχέσεων, συμμαχιών κ.λπ. Η ρήτρα εξαίρεσης για τον Καναδά και την Αυστραλία παραπέμπει σε κάτι πολύ σημαντικό: ότι οι ΗΠΑ δεν λειτουργούν πλέον σαν ηγεμόνας του δυτικού «στρατοπέδου» αλλά σαν ο ισχυρότερος (ακόμη) παγκόσμιος πόλος που διαχειρίζεται τις διεθνείς του σχέσεις με συμμαχίες α λα καρτ.

Οι εποχές που οι ΗΠΑ επιδοτούσαν (κυριολεκτικά και μεταφορικά) τη γερμανική και γενικότερα την ευρωπαϊκή ανάπτυξη, διότι είχαν την πολυτέλεια να το κάνουν και ήταν εθνικά συμφέρον γι’ αυτές να το κάνουν στο πλαίσιο της αντιπαράθεσης με το σοβιετικό στρατόπεδο, είναι πολύ μακρινές. Το ίδιο μακρινές είναι οι εποχές που ο Χένρι Κίσιντζερ συλλάμβανε το εντυπωσιακό στρατήγημα της προσέγγισης ΗΠΑ – Κίνας ενάντια στη Σοβιετική Ένωση. Στη μέθη της νίκης στον Ψυχρό Πόλεμο και της κατάρρευσης της ΕΣΣΔ, αλλά και εγκλωβισμένες στο μεγα-μηχανισμό της παγκοσμιοποίησης, οι ΗΠΑ αντιλήφθηκαν πολύ αργά ότι ο κινεζικός «δράκος» δεν δυνάμωνε απλώς αλλά εγκαθιστούσε μια δυναμική κατάκτησης της παγκόσμιας πρωτιάς.

Η Ιαπωνία, η Αυστραλία και ο Καναδάς δεν αποτελούν σοβαρή απειλή για τις ΗΠΑ όσον αφορά τα εμπορικά πλεονάσματα. Η Αυστραλία και ο Καναδάς εξαιρέθηκαν ήδη των μέτρων προστατευτισμού. Έτσι, οι ΗΠΑ άνοιξαν το δρόμο για εμπορικές συμφωνίες α λα καρτ, που απειλούν με πλήρη αποδόμηση του «παγκοσμιοποιημένου» πλαισίου παγκόσμιου εμπορίου.

Όλα παίζονται στην επόμενη πενταετία!

Οι δύο Παγκόσμιοι Πόλεμοι έγιναν για τον ίδιο ουσιαστικά λόγο: διότι νέες ανερχόμενες δυνάμεις αμφισβητούσαν την πρωτοκαθεδρία των παλαιότερων. Αλλά και διότι η φάση του μοιράσματος των αποικιών ήταν μια από τη φύση της hot υπόθεση όπου ο στρατός έπαιζε αποφασιστικό ρόλο. Η παλιά κοσμοκράτειρα Αγγλία έχασε τα σκήπτρα από τις ΗΠΑ, αλλά χάρη στην ύπαρξη της ΕΣΣΔ, αυτό διευθετήθηκε «φιλικά» στο πλαίσιο του δυτικού στρατοπέδου.

Οι ΗΠΑ γνωρίζουν πολύ καλά από τη δική τους εμπειρία πώς μια δύναμη αναδεικνύεται σε παγκόσμιο ηγεμόνα αν έχει την πολυτέλεια να δυναμώνει σε ένα σχετικά προστατευμένο περιβάλλον: ενώ οι μεγάλες ευρωπαϊκές δυνάμεις σφάζονταν και αλληλοεξουδετέρωναν την ισχύ τους σε δύο Παγκόσμιους Πολέμους, αυτές κέρδισαν στο Δεύτερο Παγκόσμιο Πόλεμο τα σκήπτρα του ηγεμόνα χωρίς τις σημαντικές απώλειες των άλλων δυτικών συμμάχων.

Από μια τέτοια συνθήκη «εκ του ασφαλούς» ανέλιξης προς την πρώτη θέση της παγκόσμιας ισχύος επωφελήθηκε η Κίνα στα χρόνια της παγκοσμιοποίησης. Οι ΗΠΑ είναι σε θέση να αναγνωρίσουν τα «σημάδια» και τις αναλογίες. Και είναι αυτές που κινδυνεύουν να χάσουν την πρώτη θέση – όχι η Γερμανία.

Πολλοί αναλυτές πιστεύουν ότι είναι πλέον αργά για τις ΗΠΑ για να αποτρέψουν το «μοιραίο» της ανάδειξης της Κίνας σε ισχυρότερη οικονομική δύναμη του κόσμου μέσα στην επόμενη δεκαετία. Ο Τραμπ εκπροσωπεί εκείνες τις δυνάμεις μέσα στην αμερικανική άρχουσα τάξη και το αμερικανικό «βαθύ κράτος» που θέλουν, έστω και την ύστατη στιγμή, την άσκηση μιας «κρουστικής» και ενεργητικής πολιτικής αποτροπής του «μοιραίου». Τουλάχιστον, σκέφτονται, δεν θα το κάνουμε εύκολο για την Κίνα και δεν θα αποδεχτούμε παθητικά τη μοίρα μας.

Δεν πρόκειται λοιπόν για «τρέλα» αλλά για επιλογή. Που ανοίγει την πόρτα του «φρενοκομείου» στις διεθνείς σχέσεις, ναι, αλλά για τους εμπνευστές της είναι η μόνη που έχει κάποιες πιθανότητες να διατηρήσει μεσοπρόθεσμα την αμερικανική κυριαρχία.

Το ζήτημα αν θα ανακοπεί η «αναπόφευκτη» πορεία της Κίνας προς την κατάληψη της θέσης της ισχυρότερης οικονομικής δύναμης του κόσμου, θα κριθεί στην επόμενη πενταετία. Σε 1,5 με 2 χρόνια (αν οι κυρίαρχες προβλέψεις αποδειχτούν σωστές) θα κριθεί κάτι άλλο: πώς θα αντιδράσει η παγκοσμιοποίηση που θρυμματίζεται στο σοκ της νέας κάμψης του κύκλου οικονομικής ανάκαμψης.

Πλησιάζουμε στην πρώτη μεγάλη «στροφή» του νέου αιώνα…

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