ΙΟΒΕ: Καμπανάκι για ύφεση της τάξεως του 1% το 2016

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Γράφει ο Γιάννης Κουτρουμπής

Σε νέα έκθεση του το Ίδρυμα Οικονομικών και Βιομηχανικών Ερευνών κρούει τον κώδωνα του κινδύνου, καθώς ανιχνεύει από τα στοιχεία που έχει μελετήσει να υπάρχει ύφεση της τάξεως του 1% για το 2016 και παρατηρεί πως υπάρχει μεγάλος κίνδυνος να υπάρξει και στασιμότητα.

Σύμφωνα με την έκθεση που έδωσε στη δημοσιότητα, οι αντικειμενικές συνθήκες για την έλευση της ανάπτυξης υπάρχουν, μετά και την ολοκλήρωση της αξιολόγησης. Απαιτείται, όμως, και στοχευμένη οικονομική πολιτική, προς την κατεύθυνση της διασφάλισης των αναγκαίων συνθηκών, προσθέτει.

Για την πορεία της ελληνικής οικονομίας, το ΙΟΒΕ κάνει λόγο για κλιμάκωση της υποχώρησης του ΑΕΠ το α΄ τρίμηνο στο -1,4% από -,09% το δ΄ τρίμηνο του 2015. Την ίδια στιγμή, διατηρείται ο αποπληθωρισμός το α΄ πεντάμηνο του έτους, αν και οι τιμές καταγράφουν ηπιότερη πτώση έναντι της ίδιας περιόδου του 2015 στο -1% από -1,5%.

Συνολικά για το 2016, το ΙΟΒΕ αναμένει η υποχώρηση της ιδιωτικής κατανάλωσης να συνεχιστεί λόγω της εφαρμογής των νέων μέτρων και της επιβράδυνσης στην αύξηση της απασχόλησης. Αναμένει επίσης περιστολή της δημόσιας κατανάλωσης και εξασθένιση των επενδύσεων, ενώ οι εισαγωγές και οι εξαγωγές εκτιμάται ότι θα σημειώσουν κάμψη.

Σε αυτό το πλαίσιο διατηρεί αμετάβλητη την πρόβλεψη του για ύφεση 1% το 2016, ενώ τοποθετεί την ανεργία στην περιοχή του 24,7% και κάνει λόγο για αποπληθωρισμό 0,3%. Σε ευρωπαϊκό επίπεδο το ΙΟΒΕ σημειώνει ότι η Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση διέρχεται κρίση μετά το δημοψήφισμα στη Μεγάλη Βρετανία που ανοίγει τον δρόμο για την αποχώρηση της χώρας από την Ε.Ε.

«Αναμένονται θεσμικές ανακατατάξεις και κλυδωνισμοί», αναφέρει το ΙΟΒΕ και προσθέτει ότι «η Ελλάδα δεν αποτελεί πλέον κεντρικό πρόβλημα για τους εταίρους αλλά εξακολουθεί να βρίσκεται υπό εποπτεία».

Εκτιμά ταυτόχρονα ότι η Ευρωζώνη θα προχωρήσει σε περαιτέρω εμβάθυνση και σε αυτό το πλαίσιο η ελληνική οικονομία θα πρέπει να είναι προετοιμασμένη. Στην τριμηνιαία έκθεση το ΙΟΒΕ περιλαμβάνει μελέτη για τις οικονομικές επιδράσεις από την ιδιωτικοποίηση του ΟΛΠ.

Όπως προκύπτει από τη μελέτη, το καθαρό δημοσιονομικό όφελος για την περίοδο 2016-2025 υπολογίζεται σε 475 εκατ. ευρώ σε όρους παρούσας αξίας. Στη μελέτη εκτιμήθηκε ταυτόχρονα η συμβολή της πώλησης των μετοχών του ΟΛΠ στην ενίσχυση των αναπτυξιακών ρυθμών ανόδου της ελληνικής οικονομίας και στην προσπάθεια δημοσιονομικής προσαρμογής και μείωσης του δημοσίου χρέους.

Συνολικά, στο τέλος της εξεταζόμενης περιόδου (2016-2025), όταν θα έχει ολοκληρωθεί το επενδυτικό σχέδιο, το επίπεδο του ΑΕΠ θα είναι κατά 0,8% υψηλότερο από αυτό που θα ήταν αν δεν είχε γίνει η συναλλαγή, αναφέρει το ΙΟΒΕ.

Τέλος, το συμπέρασμα από τα αποτελέσματα της μελέτης του ΙΟΒΕ είναι ότι χρειάζονται περισσότερες επενδύσεις σύντομα προκειμένου να μπορέσουν οι προβλέψεις περί ύφεσης και στασιμότητας να καμφθούν. Στην ουσία θα πρέπει το οικονομικό επιτελείο να λάβει σοβαρά υπόψη του τις μελέτες αυτές προκειμένου να επιταχύνει τον σχεδιασμό του.

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