Ο ιταλικός πυρετός του Μαξίμου

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Μέχρι πρότινος, ένα βασικό πρόβλημα απασχολούσε τους επιτελείς του Μαξίμου: τι θα γίνει με το χρέος και αν η Γερμανία θα κάνει κάποιου είδους παραχώρηση, ώστε να μπορεί και ο πρωθυπουργός να πουλήσει κάτι μετά το τέλος του προγράμματος.

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Τις τελευταίες μέρες, όμως, ήρθε να προστεθεί ένας ακόμα πονοκέφαλος, πρωτίστως στην Ευρώπη και στη συνέχεια και στο Μαξίμου: αυτός της Ιταλίας. Η νέα κυβέρνηση στη χώρα είναι μέχρι στιγμής εφιάλτης για τις Βρυξέλλες, τα σενάρια που ακούγονται οδηγούν τους κομισάριους σε απελπισία, ενώ και τα πρόσωπα που επιλέγονται σε θέσεις-κλειδιά είναι, αν μη τι άλλο, διαμφισβητούμενης σοβαρότητας. Κάπως έτσι, στις Βρυξέλλες συζητούν τι πρέπει να γίνει με τη γείτονα και ποια στάση πρέπει να κρατήσει το ευρωπαϊκό κέντρο λήψης αποφάσεων, γιατί, από τη μία δεν μπορεί να φανεί αδύναμο, από την άλλη αδέξιες κινήσεις μπορεί να ενισχύσουν το Κίνημα των 5 Αστέρων και τη Λέγκα του Βορρά.

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Στο Μαξίμου, δε, το κλίμα είναι ακόμα χειρότερο, για έναν πρόσθετο λόγο: τα σκαμπανανεβάσματα λόγω Ιταλίας ήρθαν σε μια εξαιρετικά κρίσιμη στιγμή για τη χώρα μας. Προ εβδομάδος, λόγω της ανόδου των επιτοκίων εξαιτίας των εξελίξεων στην Ιταλία, ακυρώθηκε προγραμματισμένη έξοδος στις αγορές. Το επιτόκιο του δεκαετούς ομολόγου ανεβαίνει, όπως και το spread.Και, αν μέχρι τον Αύγουστο τα πράγματα δεν είναι καλύτερα ή έστω πιο σταθεροποιημένα, τότε το αφήγημα της «καθαρής εξόδου» θα έχει πέρα από το συμπληρωματικό Μνημόνιο, και έναν ακόμα εξαιρετικά σοβαρό ανασχετικό παράγοντα.

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Και τότε είναι που, μπορεί ο πρωθυπουργός να κάνει πλάκα με τον χρόνο των εκλογών, αλλά μπορεί να σκεφτεί τις εισηγήσεις για πρόωρες κάλπες το φθινόπωρο ή έστω στις αρχές του 2019.

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 Μπορεί να ζητάμε προληπτική γραμμή και να μην μας τη δίνουν Οι εξελίξεις των τελευταίων ημερών, δε, φέρνουν στη επιφάνεια και ένα ακόμα ζήτημα, αυτό της προληπτικής γραμμής στήριξης. Φαινομενικά, η κυβέρνηση δεν την θέλει. Ούτε και η αντιπολίτευση τη θέλει, πλην ίσως του Στουρνάρα, των Ελλήνων τραπεζιτών και της ΕΚΤ που ξέρουν από αριθμούς και αφήνουν την πολιτική στην άκρη. Μπορεί, όμως, όπως λένε άνθρωποι από τον τραπεζικό χώρο, οι εξελίξεις στην Ιταλία να οδηγήσουν την κυβέρνηση στο εξής σημείο: να θέλει μια προληπτική γραμμή στήριξης και να μην την παίρνει, εξαιτίας της απροθυμίας των Ευρωπαίων. Γνωρίζω, ακραίο το σενάριο και πολιτικά άβολο, αλλά υπάρχει.

Η ζημιά του Ίλιντεν και το κρυφό όνομα

Κλείνω με ορισμένες πληροφορίες για το Σκοπιανό. Προ ημερών, ο Τσίπρας είπε στον Μητσοτάκη ότι συζητά το «Μακεδονία του Ίλιντεν». Τώρα, βέβαια, κάνει ότι δεν το συζήτησε ποτέ, αλλά μαθαίνω ότι του Μητσοτάκη κόντεψε να του πέσει το ακουστικό όταν το άκουσε. Το Ίλιντεν όμως δεν το στήριξε ούτε ο Θεοδωράκης, συνεπώς κάηκε. Έλα όμως που ο Ζάεφ έχει πει στον Τσίπρα ότι αυτό είναι το μόνο όνομα που μπορεί να ξεκλειδώσει το ergaomnes. Προς ώρας, βέβαια, δεν το δέχεται το εθνικιστικό VMROκαι λέω «προς ώρας» γιατί έχει κινητοποιηθεί ο διεθνής παράγων, για να κλείσει το ζήτημα.

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Δεν λέω, όμως, ότι θα κλείσει, γιατί το «Ίλιντεν» μας πήγε πίσω, ενώ όλες οι ονομασίες που προτείνει ο Νίμιτς συναντούν σοβαρές δυσκολίες στο να περάσουν στα Σκόπια. Συνεπώς, ακούγεται ότι υπάρχει και ένα ακόμα όνομα στο τραπέζι, άγνωστο στο ευρύ κοινό. Το Ίλιντεν, όμως, έκανε ζημιά στη δυναμική της διαδικασίας και έτσι ο πρωθυπουργός που ανέφερε σε διάφορους διεθνείς συνομιλητές του ότι θα λύσει το Σκοπιανό, κινδυνεύει να φανεί ανακόλουθος.

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