Ο Ζάεφ δείχνει τον χρόνο των εκλογών

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Με τα Μνημόνια να τελειώνουν, τη χώρα να βγαίνει στην ανάπτυξη και όλα τα προβλήματά μας σταδιακά να λύνονται (εντάξει, σοβαρεύομαι), αυτό που συζητείται ευρέως είναι, τελικά πότε θα γίνουν οι εκλογές.

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Η στρατηγική απόφαση του Μαξίμου είναι διπλή κάλπη, τον Μάιο του 2019, μαζί με τις Ευρωεκλογές. Άλλωστε, το να πάει σε εκλογές τον Σεπτέμβριο θα ήταν αυτοκτονικό για τον πρωθυπουργό. Το σενάριο του τρέχοντος φθινοπώρου είναι εξαιρετικά δύσκολο να ευοδωθεί, γιατί ο Αλέξης Τσίπρας δεν θα έχει τίποτε χειροπιαστό: η απόφαση για το χρέος μπορεί να είναι συμπαθητική για τις αγορές, αλλά στους πολίτες δεν λέει τίποτε, ενώ το Σκοπιανό είναι μεγάλο και διαρκές πρόβλημα.

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Ο αστάθμητος παράγοντας όμως είναι η στάση του Πάνου Καμμένου, ο οποίος βλέπει του ΑΝΕΛ να εξαϋλώνονται δημοσκοπικά και, επειδή είναι έμπειρος, ξέρει ότι και από τυχόν διάσωση των συντάξεων, φερ ειπείν, ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ έχει λαμβάνειν, αλλά αυτός όχι ιδιαίτερα. Συνεπώς, παίζει μπάλα με το Σκοπιανό. Την κυβέρνηση, όμως, απ’ ότι φαίνεται θα την περάσει στο 2019 ο…Ζάεφ.

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Οι Σκοπιανοί θα κάνουν το δημοψήφισμά τους στο τέλος του Σεπτεμβρίου, κατά πάσα πιθανότητα, Αν ο Ζάεφ κερδίσει, προχωρά με τη Συνταγματική Αναθεώρηση. Αν το χάσει, η Αθήνα είναι σε ευνοϊκή θέση στο blamegameκαι ο Πάνος Καμμένος δεν χρειάζεται να κάνει πρόσθετες λεβεντιές. Στο καλό σενάριο, όμως, αν κερδηθεί το δημοψήφισμα, χρειάζονται 2-3 μήνες για τη Συνταγματική Αναθεώρηση. Οπότε, οι Σκοπιανοί θα έχουν τελειώσει με όλες τις διαδικασίες που τους αναλογούν, αν πάνε όλα ομαλά, ως το τέλος Ιανουαρίου.

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Μέχρι τότε, θα έχουμε μάθει τι θα γίνει με τις συντάξεις και τα αντίμετρα και πώς θα έχει καταφέρει ο πρωθυπουργός να «γεμίσει» το πολιτικό του αφήγημα. Και, αν αυτό έχει συμβεί, τότε οι μονομάχοι θα είναι σε θέσεις μάχης και, άρα, θα είναι εντελώς σχετικό, αν οι εκλογές θα γίνουν Μάρτιο ή Μάιο.

Οι φάκελοι του Κυριάκου

Ο Κυριάκος Μητσοτάκης δεν μιλάει ποτέ τυχαία. Γι’ αυτό και, είμαι πεπεισμένο, ότι, όταν λέει στον πρωθυπουργό από το βήμα της Βουλής ότι έχει έναν καυτό φάκελο που αφορά ευνοϊκή φορολογική ρύθμιση για πρόσωπο του περιβάλλοντός του. Πληροφορούμαι ότι στο επιτελείο του προέδρου της ΝΔ έχουν σοβαρά στοιχεία, εξ όσων λένε, τα οποία θα βγουν στην πορεία. Και λέω θα βγουν στην πορεία, γιατί δεν βλέπω, ελέω πολιτικής πόλωσης, να σταματούν οι σκληρές πολιτικές επιθέσεις προς τη ΝΔ, πολλές φορές και μέσω του φιλοκυβερνητικού Τύπου.

Ευρωπαϊκό deal στα σκαριά

Μαθαίνω από άνθρωπό μου που τριγυρίζει σε ευρωπαϊκές πρωτεύουσες ότι ένα νέο dealείναι στα σκαριά σε ευρωπαϊκό επίπεδο, με το βλέμμα στις επόμενες εκλογές. Ο Γάλλος Πρόεδρος Μακρόν θέλει ένα από τα κορυφαία αξιώματα στην Ε.Ε. να πάει σε Γάλλο, αλλά αυτό πολύ δύσκολα θα είναι η Κομισιόν. Υπό αυτό το πρίσμα, κάποιοι εκτιμούν ότι αυτό θα μπορούσε να είναι η ΕΚΤ, όπου ο Γερμανός κεντρικός τραπεζίτης Γιενς Βάιντμαν έχει ήδη καεί. Το αντάλλαγμα; Υποστήριξη του δυνητικά ισχυρού σε πανευρωπαϊκό επίπεδο Μακρόν στην επιλογή του ΕΛΚ για τη θέση του προέδρου της Κομισιόν, ένα πρόσωπο που θα στηρίζουν οι Γερμανοί. Και αυτό το πρόσωπο δύσκολα θα είναι ο Μισέλ Μπαρνιέ, υπεύθυνος της Ε.Ε. για το Brexitκαι άλλοτε Επίτροπος, ο οποίος φημολογείται ότι επιθυμεί να είναι υποψήφιος για την Κομισιόν, ούτε ο Φινλανδός πρώην υπουργός Οικονομικών Άλεξ Στουμπ. Άλλο πρόσωπο «ψήνεται».

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