Οι τριπλές εκλογές και η τέλεια καταιγίδα

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Του Γιώργου Ευγενίδη

Θυμάστε άλλη φορά να έχουν γίνει στη χώρα τριπλές εκλογές, αυτοδιοικητικές, ευρωεκλογές και εθνικές μαζί; Για όλα, όμως, όπως φαίνεται υπάρχει μια πρώτη φορά. Όπως έγινε ένα αριστερό κόμμα για πρώτη φορά κυβέρνηση, έτσι θα δούμε, όπως πάμε, και ένα τέτοιο εκλογικό σχήμα μπροστά μας.

Η κυβέρνηση φαίνεται να έχει αποφασίσει να τραβήξει μπροστά τις αυτοδιοικητικές εκλογές.

Πρόκειται, κατά βάση, για μια εξαιρετικά σκηνοθετημένη κατάσταση: η κυβέρνηση επιχειρηματολογούσε, διαρρήγνυε τα ιματιά της για την ανάγκη να αποσυνδεθούν οι αυτοδιοικητικές εκλογές από τις ευρωεκλογές, για να μην «νοθεύεται» ο σκοπός τους και να ενισχυθεί η αυτοδιοικητική φύση τους.

Τώρα, η ίδια κυβέρνηση που μέχρι πριν από τρεις μέρες είχε αυτό το επιχείρημα, επικαλείται, θεωρητικά, το επιχείρημα ότι θα ήταν πολύ πιθανό η απόφαση για αυτοδιοικητικές εκλογές τον Οκτώβριο να «πέσει» στο ΣτΕ, μετά από προσφυγές, λόγω υπέρβασης της διάρκειας της θητείας των εκλεγμένων τοπικών αρχόντων.

Πρόκειται για προφάσεις εν αμαρτίαις. Τώρα η κυβέρνηση θα κάνει τάχα την καλή στους αυτοδιοικητικούς, ότι δηλαδή υιοθετεί ένα κεντρικό αίτημά τους για τη διενέργεια αυτοδιοικητικών εκλογών τον επόμενο Μάιο, και στην πραγματικότητα θα βάλει σε εφαρμογή το σχέδιό της για μια κατάσταση «τέλειας καταιγίδας», όταν θα έρθει ο χρόνος των εκλογών.

Η στόχευση είναι τριπλή: αφενός, να δημιουργηθεί ένα ισχυρό διακύβευμα για να ενισχυθεί ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ από τα διλήμματα των εθνικών εκλογών, μιας και η απήχηση του κόμματος, ιδίως στην αυτοδιοίκηση, είναι μηδαμινή. Αφετέρου, να αποδυναμωθεί η ΝΔ, κυρίως λόγω «αντάρτικων» υποψηφιοτήτων στις αυτοδιοικητικές εκλογές που θεωρητικά θα φέρουν σε δύσκολη θέση την οδό Πειραιώς, η οποία δεν θα θέλει εσωκομματική αναταραχή πριν από τις εθνικές εκλογές. Τέλος, να διεμβολιστεί επί της ουσίας και το Κίνημα Αλλαγής, δημιουργώντας συνθήκες όσμωσης σε επίπεδο αυτοδιοίκησης, ώστε να δημιουργηθεί ζήτημα για την αντι-ΣΥΡΙΖΑ προσέγγιση που φαίνεται ότι υιοθετεί η Φώφη Γεννηματά.

Χωρίς να μπορεί κανείς να προβλέψει με απόλυτη ασφάλεια το μέλλον, είναι σαφές ότι το σενάριο των τριπλών εκλογών θα είναι το σενάριο της απόλυτης σύγχυσης. Έτσι, όμως, η κυβέρνηση θεωρεί ότι μπορεί να αποτρέψει μια σαφή και καθαρή πολιτική ήττα της, έχοντας καταφέρει μέχρι τότε, με ορισμένα μέτρα, να γεμίσει και το καλάθι της παροχολογίας, πέραν του στρατηγήματος της τριπλής κάλπης. Έτσι πορεύεται, όμως, η κυβέρνηση. Με τακτικισμούς και εκλογικά στρατηγήματα, προκειμένου, αν δεν μπορεί να κερδίσει, τουλάχιστον να κάνει τη ζωή των αντιπάλων της όλο και πιο δύσκολη και να διαμορφώσει ένα μετεκλογικό σκηνικό τόσο ρευστό που θα γίνει ακόμα πιο ρευστό, σε περίπτωση που δεν επιτευχθεί η προσπάθεια αλλαγής του εκλογικού νόμου που καθιερώνει την απλή αναλογική.

Βεβαίως, το εγχείρημα της κυβέρνησης έχει και ένα σημαντικό ρίσκο: να αποδειχθεί μια μεγαλοπρεπής παγίδα για το κυβερνών κόμμα, το οποίο, παρά την όποια προσπάθεια επανσύνδεσης με τα κοινωνικά στρώματα που του προσέδωσαν δυναμική νίκης το 2015, μπορεί να υποστεί τριπλή πολιτική ήττα το 2019. Και τότε είναι που η ΝΔ θα έχει πραγματικά καθαρό ορίζοντα, διότι, σενάριο ανατροπής κυβέρνησης έξι μηνών λόγω της εκλογής Προέδρου της Δημοκρατίας θα συνιστά σενάριο πολιτικής αυτοκτονίας για τον ΣΥΡΙΖΑ.

Συνεπώς, το κυβερνών κόμμα παίζει τα ρέστα του τώρα, γνωρίζοντας ότι τα σχέδια για παρενθέσεις, αριστερές τε και δεξιές, γυρίζουν κατά βάση μπούμερανγκ.

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