Πώς σκέφτεται ο Τσίπρας να διαλύσει τη ΝΔ

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Γράφει ο Σπύρος Ριζόπουλος

Η κυβέρνηση επιβεβαίωσε μετά τα μεσάνυχτα την πλειοψηφία της,  με 155 ψήφους στις προγραμματικές δηλώσεις και ο πρωθυπουργός στην ομιλία του έδωσε έμφαση στην εξάντληση της τετραετίας. Παρά ταύτα σε ένα περιβάλλον επάλληλων και διασταυρούμενων κρίσεων και με οριακές πλέον τις αντοχές και τις ανοχές της ελληνικής κοινωνίας, το να μιλάει κανείς για ορίζοντα τετραετίας είναι κάτι εξαιρετικά φιλόδοξο.

Ανεξάρτητα από το τι δηλώνει επίσημα ο Τσίπρας, για το Μαξίμου υπάρχει θέμα εκλογικού νόμου. Ο Τσίπρας ξέρει πολύ καλά πως έχει να βγάλει σε πέρας ένα πολύ δύσκολο πρόγραμμα, με πολύ αμφίβολα αποτελέσματα. Στις τελευταίες εκλογές κατάφερε να είναι πρώτος και με διαφορά 7,5 μονάδων γιατί το εκλογικό σώμα του έδωσε την ευκαιρία που δεν είχε στο πρώτο επτάμηνο της πρωθυπουργικής του θητείας. Είναι μια ψήφος ανοχής από την πλευρά της κοινωνίας και πολύ δύσκολα θα μπορούσε να επαναληφθεί ένας τέτοιος εκλογικός άθλος με όλα όσα θα μεσολαβήσουν.

Στο μυαλό λοιπόν του Τσίπρα υπάρχει εκ των πραγμάτων θέμα αλλαγής του εκλογικού νόμου με την κατάργηση του μπόνους των 50 εδρών για το πρώτο κόμμα και την καθιέρωση στην ουσία της απλής αναλογικής. Αυτή η κίνηση θα είναι και το «τυράκι» για να φέρει πιο κοντά του ΠΑΣΟΚ, ΔΗΜΑΡ, Ποτάμι. Ήδη ο Θεοχαρόπουλος της ΔΗΜΑΡ άνοιξε το θέμα στη συζήτηση των προγραμματικών και δεν το έκανε καθόλου τυχαία. Για τους «μικρούς» η απλή αναλογική θα είναι ένα μεγάλο πολιτικό δώρο καθώς δεν τους εξασφαλίζει μόνο την εκλογική τους επιβίωση αλλά και τη συμμετοχή τους σε σχήματα κυβερνητικής συνεργασίας.

Έτσι ο Τσίπρας μπορεί με το σύνολο των «μικρών» ( ΠΑΣΟΚ, ΔΗΜΑΡ, Ποτάμι, ΚΚΕ, Ένωση Κεντρώων, ενδεχομένως και Χ.Α) να εξασφαλίσει μια αυξημένη πλειοψηφία 180 και πλέον βουλευτών, πράγμα που θα του επιτρέψει ο νέος εκλογικός νόμος να ισχύσει από τις επόμενες βουλευτικές εκλογές, όποτε κι αν γίνουν αυτές.

Με ένα άμεσα εφαρμόσιμο σύστημα απλής αναλογικής στις επόμενες εκλογές ο Τσίπρας ξέρει πολύ καλά πως θα ενθαρρύνει φυγόκεντρες τάσεις που ενδεχομένως θα υπάρξουν μετά τις εσωκομματικές εκλογές για την ανάδειξη νέας ηγεσίας στη ΝΔ. Με εκλογικό νόμο που εξασφαλίζει κοινοβουλευτική εκπροσώπηση και ενδεχομένως την προοπτική κάποιου είδους κυβερνητικής συνεργασίας ή έστω συνέργειας, ο «χαμένος» για την αρχηγία της ΝΔ δεν αποκλείεται να μπει στον πειρασμό να δημιουργήσει δικό του κόμμα!

Αν βγει ο Άδωνις αρχηγός, είναι σίγουρο πως θα μείνει «μόνος στο κόμμα»,  αφού θα έφευγαν όλοι οι υπόλοιποι, καραμανλικοί και μητσοτακικοί. Αν βγει ο Τζιτζικώστας, πάνω – κάτω θα συμβεί το ίδιο. Σε περίπτωση εκλογής Μεϊμαράκη ή Μητσοτάκη, θα πρέπει να θεωρείται βέβαιη – αν όχι άμεσα,  πάντως εν ευθέτω χρόνο – η αποχώρηση της «δεξιάς» τάσης.

Εξυπακούεται πως σε αυτές τις συνθήκες διάσπαση και κατ’ ουσία διάλυση της ΝΔ όπως την ξέρουμε σήμερα,  θα σήμαινε την απόλυτη κυριαρχία του Τσίπρα στο πολιτικό σκηνικό για πάρα πολλά χρόνια.

Ο Τσίπρας οδηγεί τα πράγματα σε ένα νέο μοντέλο διακυβέρνησης που δεν έχει να κάνει τόσο με κυβερνήσεις συνεργασίας όσο με συνέργειες εξουσίας. Ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ είναι εξοικειωμένος με τις συνιστώσες και με έναν ανάλογο τρόπο μπορεί πιο άνετα να αντιλαμβάνεται ένα σχήμα διαχείρισης της εξουσίας που θα απαρτίζεται από πολλά μικρά κόμματα. 

Ο εκλογικός νόμος είναι ο ακρογωνιαίος λίθος για αυτή τη μετάβαση καθώς ακόμη και στην περίπτωση μιας συρρίκνωσης του ίδιου του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ στις επόμενες εκλογές, ο Τσίπρας θα μπορούσε να παραμείνει στην καρέκλα του πρωθυπουργού.

Προς το παρών πρόκειται για «σχέδια επί χάρτου». Το κλίμα της αντιπαράθεσης μεταξύ των υποψηφίων αρχηγών και κυρίως το τελικό αποτέλεσμα είναι που θα δώσουν το έναυσμα στο Μαξίμου για το αν, πότε και πως θα προχωρήσει στον σχεδιασμό αυτό.

ΥΓ: Είμαι σίγουρος πως κάτι υποψιάζεται ο Νικολόπουλος…

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