Οι αρθρογράφοι του Rizopoulos Post για το 2017 (μέρος 1ο)

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Το 2017 αναμένεται πολιτικά και οικονομικά να είναι μια χρονιά γεμάτη προκλήσεις τόσο στην Ελλάδα όσο και το εξωτερικό.

Ξεκινώντας από το εξωτερικό αναμένουμε τις εκλογές στην Γερμανία με το κόμμα της Μέρκελ να κερδίζει βεβαίως την πρώτη θέση, έχοντας απολέσει δυναμική όμως και με ενισχυμένο το λαϊκιστικό κόμμα «Εναλλακτική για τη Γερμανία». Η Ισπανία πολύ πιθανόν να οδηγηθεί εκ νέου σε εκλογές λόγω της πολύ εύθραυστης κυβέρνησης Ραχόι, η οποία είναι κυβέρνηση μειοψηφίας.

Στις ΗΠΑ αναμένεται να αναλάβει καθήκοντα προέδρου ο Ντόναλτ Τραμπ, γεγονός που θα χει ιδιαίτερο ενδιαφέρον, θα υπάρξει μια στροφή της οικονομίας στη μείωση των φόρων και την επίσπευση δημιουργίας υποδομών. Στην Γαλλία, οι προεδρικές εκλογές θα διεξαχθούν με ήττα για τη Μαρίν Λεπέν και τον Φρανσουά Φιγιον να γίνεται ο επόμενος πρόεδρος της Γαλλικής Δημοκρατίας. Τα αμερικανικά επιτόκια αναμένεται να αυξηθούν λίγο πιο πάνω από το 1%. Η τιμή του πετρελαίου θα αυξηθεί κι άλλο. Το ευρώ και το δολάριο θα χουν ισοτιμία 1:1. Η διαδικασία για το brexit θα ξεκινήσει.

Στα δικά μας, εκλογές μέσα στο 2017 είναι πολύ πιθανόν να μην γίνουν, αν κλείσει η δεύτερη αξιολόγηση. Βέβαια, όπως και να ‘χει, κανείς δεν μπορεί να κάνει προβλέψεις για εκλογές ή όχι στην Ελλάδα, καθώς προκύπτουν απρόβλεπτα. Παρόλα αυτά, το έτος 2017 θα αποτελεί –για τα μακροοικονομικά της χώρας- ένα έτος καμπής.

Η οικονομία θα ανακάμψει με κάποιο ρυθμό κοντά στο 1,5% ανεξάρτητα εκλογών. Η δεύτερη αξιολόγηση -αν κλείσει- θα κλείσει τον Μάρτιο. Οι τράπεζες θα επιστρέψουν και οι 4 στην κερδοφορία (ορισμένες είναι ήδη κερδοφόρες) καθώς θα προχωρήσουν σε πωλήσεις κόκκινων δανείων. Το χρηματιστήριο μπορεί να ξεπεράσει τις 800 μονάδες αν κλείσει έγκαιρα η αξιολόγηση. Ο Μυτιληναίος θα ξεκινήσει τις διαδικασίες απλοποίησης του ομίλου. Το Ποτάμι θα διαλυθεί και η Ένωση κεντρώων θα χάσει έναν ακόμα βουλευτή. Πιθανότατα να υπάρξουν και διαγραφές στελεχών από το ΠΑΣΟΚ.

Σε περίπτωση εκλογών αυτές, αν γίνουν τελικά, θα γίνουν την άνοιξη «προκειμένου να υπάρξει νωπή λαϊκή στήριξη στα μέτρα της 2ης αξιολόγησης». Η ΝΔ θα κερδίσει και θα σχηματίσει κυβέρνηση με τον Κυριάκο Μητσοτάκη πρωθυπουργό. Σε μια τέτοια περίπτωση, οι οικονομικές προβλέψεις μπορεί να βελτιωθούν, η κοινωνική συνοχή επίσης θα δοκιμαστεί.

Η Ελλάδα το καλοκαίρι θα ενταχθεί στο πρόγραμμα ποσοτικής χαλάρωσης ανεξαρτήτως εκλογών και η χώρα θα βγει στις αγορές δοκιμαστικά το τέλος της άνοιξης με επιτόκιο λίγο πιο πάνω από 4%.

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