Τι θα αλλάξει σε 35 χρόνια στον χάρτη του παγκόσμιου πληθυσμού

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Αλλαγές στον παγκόσμιο πληθυσμό δείχνει αναθεωρημένη έκθεση του ΟΗΕ, που εκτιμά ότι μέχρι το 2050 θα φτάσει τα 9,7 δισεκατομμύρια και το 2100 τα 11,2 δισ.

Όπως προκύπτει από την έκθεση και δημοσιεύει το ”Έθνος”, μέσα στα επόμενα 35 χρόνια ο μισός πληθυσμός της Γης θα ζει σε εννέα χώρες και συγκεκριμένα στην Ινδία, τη Νιγηρία, στο Πακιστάν, στη Δημοκρατία του Κονγκό, την Αιθιοπία, την Τανζανία, στις ΗΠΑ, στην Ινδονησία και την Ουγκάντα.

Η σημαντικότερη αύξηση καταγράφεται στην Αφρική, όπου ο πληθυσμός μέχρι τα μέσα του αιώνα θα ξεπεράσει τα 2,5 δισεκατομμύρια, με τη Νιγηρία να καθίσταται τρίτη πολυπληθέστερη χώρα στον κόσμο, εκτοπίζοντας τις ΗΠΑ.

Η Ινδία θα έχει ξεπεράσει την Κίνα ήδη από το 2022, έξι χρόνια νωρίτερα από ό,τι προέβλεπαν οι επιστήμονες, ενώ τα νέα είναι δυσάρεστα για την Ευρώπη, που θα συρρικνωθεί επικίνδυνα. Σύμφωνα με τις προβλέψεις του ΟΗΕ, ο πληθυσμός της Ευρώπης θα μειωθεί από τα 738 εκατομμύρια στα 646 εκατομμύρια μέχρι το τέλος του αιώνα, οδηγώντας τους ειδικούς στο συμπέρασμα ότι η μόνη «θεραπεία» είναι η υποδοχή περισσότερων μεταναστών.

Η Ευρώπη, εξάλλου, θα είναι κυριολεκτικά η… Γηραιά Ήπειρος, με τον μέσο όρο ηλικίας να αυξάνεται από τα 30 που είναι σήμερα στα 42. Μέχρι το 2050 οι θάνατοι στην Ευρώπη θα είναι περισσότεροι κατά 32 εκατομμύρια σε σχέση με τις γεννήσεις.

Μεταναστευτικό ρεύμα

Οι μεγαλύτερες μειώσεις στα ποσοστά γεννήσεων σημειώνονται στις πρώην ανατολικές χώρες, όπου ταυτόχρονα παρατηρείται σημαντική αύξηση στο μεταναστευτικό ρεύμα προς άλλα κράτη.

Μόνο από τη Βουλγαρία φεύγουν κάθε χρόνο δεκάδες χιλιάδες άνθρωποι, με προορισμό άλλες ευρωπαϊκές χώρες ή ακόμη και την Αμερική. Μέσα στα επόμενα 35 χρόνια, ο πληθυσμός χωρών όπως η Βουλγαρία, η Κροατία, η Ουγγαρία, η Ρουμανία, η Σερβία, η Ουκρανία και η Βοσνία-Ερζεγοβίνη θα μειωθεί κατά τουλάχιστον 15%. Γενικότερα, όμως, ο παγκόσμιος πληθυσμός θα είναι αρκετά… γερασμένος, καθώς οι άνθρωποι άνω των 60 ετών θα διπλασιαστούν μέχρι το 2050 και θα τριπλασιαστούν μέχρι το 2100. Την ίδια στιγμή η Αφρική βιώνει μια πληθυσμιακή έκρηξη και μέχρι το 2100 ο πληθυσμός θα έχει σχεδόν τετραπλασιαστεί.

Η μεγαλύτερη αύξηση πληθυσμού θα σημειωθεί στον Νίγηρα, όπου οι κάτοικοι θα δεκαπλασιαστούν, ενώ θα πενταπλασιαστούν μέχρι το 2100 σε δέκα ακόμη αφρικανικές χώρες μεταξύ των οποίων η Αγκόλα, η Σομαλία, η Ουγκάντα και η Τανζανία.

Η κυριότερη αιτία είναι το μεγάλο ποσοστό γεννήσεων: ο μέσος όρος της Μαύρης Ηπείρου είναι 4,7 παιδιά ανά γυναίκα, ενώ στον Νίγηρα φτάνει το 7,6, ποσοστό τριπλάσιο του παγκόσμιου μέσου όρου.

Ταυτόχρονα, το προσδόκιμο ζωής έχει αυξηθεί σημαντικά, από τα 37 έτη που ήταν το 1950 στα 60 που είναι σήμερα. Η τάση αυτή αναμένεται να συνεχιστεί και τα επόμενα χρόνια και μέχρι το 2100 το προσδόκιμο ζωής θα έχει φτάσει στην Αφρική τα 78 χρόνια. Σήμερα τρεις στους πέντε κατοίκους της Αφρικής είναι κάτω των 25 ετών.

Στον αντίποδα, ο πληθυσμός της ανατολικής Ασίας θα συρρικνωθεί, με την Ιαπωνία να κρατά τα σκήπτρα: από 127 εκατομμύρια κατοίκους σήμερα, η Χώρα του Ανατέλλοντος Ηλίου θα έχει μόνο 83 εκατομμύρια μέχρι το 2100. Ακόμη και στην Κίνα, ο πληθυσμός θα μειωθεί από 1,38 δισ. σε κάτι λιγότερο από 1 δισ. Συνολικά, όμως, ο πληθυσμός της Ασίας θα αυξηθεί, λόγω του υψηλού ποσοστού γεννήσεων στις νότιες περιοχές της ηπείρου.

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