Το ΔΝΤ παραδέχεται ότι έκανε λάθη στην Ελλάδα

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Το ΔΝΤ παραδέχεται τα λάθη και αστοχίες που έκανε στο πρόγραμμα στην Ελλάδα, ιδιαίτερα στην καθυστέρηση της αναδιάρθρωσης του χρέους, κάτι που- ομολογεί το Ταμείο- υπονόμευσε τις προοπτικής ανάκαμψης της ελληνικής οικονομίας.

Το Εκτελεστικό Συμβούλιο του ΔΝΤ αξιολογεί την απόδοση των προγραμμάτων του, προκειμένου να αλλάξει τη διαδικασία σχεδιασμού τους, έτσι ώστε να μην ξαναγίνουν τα λάθη των προηγούμενων ετών σε χώρες όπως η Ελλάδα. Στο πλαίσιο αυτής της αξιολόγησης των προγραμμάτων που υλοποιήθηκαν από το 2008 έως το 2018, το Διεθνές Νομισματικό Ταμείο διαπιστώνει αρκετές σημαντικές αστοχίες και παραλείψεις, ενώ στη σχετική έκθεση γίνεται επανειλημμένη αναφορά στη χώρα μας.

Συγκεκριμένα, αυτές οι αναφορές αναδεικνύουν, σύμφωνα με το ΑΠΕ:

  • Τον εσφαλμένο τρόπο προσέγγισης σε αρχικό στάδιο του προβλήματος της βιωσιμότητας του ελληνικού χρέους
  • Την δυσανάλογη έμφαση που δόθηκε στη δημοσιονομική προσαρμογή
  • Τις υπεραισιόδοξες εκτιμήσεις για τα μακροοικονομικά μεγέθη

Ιδιαίτερα σε ό,τι αφορά την αναδιάρθρωση του ελληνικού χρέους, το ΔΝΤ αναδεικνύει για πρώτη φορά με σαφήνεια ότι η καθυστέρηση σε αυτό το θέμα λειτούργησε σαν σανίδα σωτηρίας για τις τράπεζες της ευρωζώνης, καθώς την κρίσιμη διετία 2011-2012 η χώρα μας αποπλήρωσε ομόλογα αξίας 50 δισ. ευρώ, τα οποία βρισκόταν ως επί το πλείστον στη δικαιοδοσία ευρωπαϊκών τραπεζών.

Επιπλέον, η έκθεση του ΔΝΤ αναγνωρίζει ότι η καθυστέρηση της αναδιάρθρωσης υπονόμευσε τόσο τις προοπτικές ανάκαμψης της ελληνικής οικονομίας όσο και την ίδια την αποτελεσματικότητα του «κουρέματος» του χρέους (PSI) που έγινε το 2012. Η συγκεκριμένη εξέλιξη οφειλόταν στους φόβους για μια συνολική διάχυση της κρίσης στην Ευρωζώνη, κάτι που όμως τελικά δεν αποφεύχθηκε, σημειώνει χαρακτηριστικά το ΔΝΤ.

Το Ταμείο ότι είχε εγκρίνει για τη χώρα μας το 2010 ένα δάνειο-μαμούθ ύψους 30 δισ. ευρώ. Οι συγκεκριμένοι πόροι είχαν γίνει διαθέσιμοι, παρόλο που το ΔΝΤ δεν μπορούσε σε εκείνη τη χρονική συγκυρία να πιστοποιήσει τη βιωσιμότητα του χρέους. Για τον λόγο αυτό είχε χρειαστεί να υπάρξει μια αλλαγή στο πλαίσιο των σχετικών κανόνων μέσω της προσθήκης της «συστημικής εξαίρεσης», η οποία επέτρεψε στο Ταμείο να παρακάμψει τον σκόπελο της βιωσιμότητας μέσω της επίκλησης του κινδύνου για μια γενικότερη εξάπλωση της κρίσης. Αυτή η εξαίρεση που άνοιξε την πόρτα για τη συμμετοχή του Ταμείου προσέφερε ουσιαστικά την πολυτέλεια του χρόνου που οδήγησε στην καθυστέρηση της αναγκαίας αναδιάρθρωσης.

Ακόμη, το ΔΝΤ, παραδέχεται ότι υπήρξαν υπερβολικά αισιόδοξες προβλέψεις που οδήγησαν στο να υποτιμηθεί ο αντίκτυπος που θα έχει η δημοσιονομική προσαρμογή στην ανάπτυξη και την πορεία του χρέους. Αν ωστόσο οι προβλέψεις του Ταμείου εδράζονταν σε μια πιο ρεαλιστική βάση, το ΔΝΤ θα είχε θέσει την άμεση αναδιάρθρωση του χρέους ως βασική προϋπόθεση για τη συμμετοχή του στο ελληνικό πρόγραμμα.

Ακόμη, η έκθεση του Ταμείου σημειώνει ότι, παρά το γεγονός πως η χρηματοπιστωτική σταθερότητα ήταν στο επίκεντρο των προγραμμάτων του ΔΝΤ, το ποσοστό των «κόκκινων» δανείων κατά μέσο όρο αυξήθηκε κατά 10,5% σε μια σειρά από χώρες όπως η Ελλάδα, η Κύπρος, η Πορτογαλία και η Ιρλανδία. Το ποσοστό των μη εξυπηρετούμενων δανείων άρχισε να μειώνεται στην Πορτογαλία και την Ιρλανδία μόνο μετά το πέρας των προγραμμάτων, ενώ το συγκεκριμένο θέμα παραμένει ακόμα μια ανοιχτή πρόκληση για την Ελλάδα και την Κύπρο, σημειώνεται. Από το παράδειγμα αυτών των χωρών, το ΔΝΤ αντλεί το δίδαγμα ότι η μείωση των μη εξυπηρετούμενων δανείων κατά τη διάρκεια της υλοποίησης των προγραμμάτων εμπεριέχει μια σειρά από προκλήσεις.

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252 απαντήσεις στο “Το ΔΝΤ παραδέχεται ότι έκανε λάθη στην Ελλάδα”

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