Το φαινόμενο του «Μαύρου Κύκνου»

Μαύρος Κύκνος 2
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Aπό τον Βασίλη Κυριαζή

Το 1697 ο Ολλανδός εξερευνητής Willem de Vlamingh σε ένα από τα ταξίδια του στην Δυτική Αυστραλία ανακάλυψε μαύρους κύκνους. Η είδηση προκάλεσε μεγάλη έκπληξη στην Ευρώπη, αφού η πεποίθηση ότι όλοι οι κύκνοι είναι άσπροι ήταν τόσο δεδομένη ώστε η έκφραση «μαύρος κύκνος» αποτελούσε περίφραση του αδυνάτου.

Στις 16 Απριλίου του 2010 τέσσερις περίπου δεκαετίας μετά την μεταπολίτευση, ο Πρωθυπουργός της Ελλάδας κ. Γεώργιος Παπανδρέου ανακοινώνει ότι η χώρα μην μπορώντας να αντέξει άλλο τις πιέσεις των ξένων αγορών αναγκάζεται να προσφύγει σε ένα δυσκολονόητο για το ευρύτερο κοινό, μηχανισμό οικονομικής στήριξης. Η αρχή του τέλους της πλέον ακμάζουσας οικονομικής περιόδου της νεώτερης ελληνικής ιστορίας, είχε προαναγγελθεί.

Η πεποίθηση ότι η οικονομία θα συνέχιζε να είναι εύρωστη και ακμάζουσα απλά και μόνο επειδή αυτό συνέβαινε τα 30 τελευταία χρόνια ήταν τόσο βαθιά ριζωμένη στο συλλογικό υποσυνείδητο του Έλληνα, ώστε η συνειδητοποίηση της οικονομικής κρίσης προκάλεσε την ίδια έκπληξη που είχε προκαλέσει η θέα ενός μαύρου κύκνου στον Willem de Vlamingh. Η ελληνική κοινωνία κακομαθημένη, αυτάρεσκη και ψευτοθυμόσοφη όπως συνήθως, καταλήγει στο συμπέρασμα ότι οι οικονομικές πολιτικές των μεταπολιτευτικών κυβερνήσεων ήταν λογικό να μας οδηγήσουν σε αυτό το αποτέλεσμα. Η φράση «εγώ το ήξερα, αλλά…» γίνεται μόνιμη επωδός των πολιτικών μας συζητήσεων.

Αν βέβαια κάνουμε μια μικρή αναδρομή στο κοντινό μας παρελθόν θα δούμε ότι σχεδόν κανείς δεν είχε προβλέψει αυτή την εξέλιξη ή ότι έστω αυτοί που το είχαν κάνει αποτελούσαν μειοψηφία, μια παρεκκλίνουσα συνισταμένη της συλλογικής λογικής. Προς τι λοιπόν αυτή η ομαδική τύφλωση; Και γιατί όταν έστω και βίαια μας «άνοιξαν τα μάτια» κανείς δεν παραδέχτηκε την πρότερη τύφλωσή του;

Η ιστορία συνήθως γράφεται εκ των υστέρων όταν δηλαδή έχουμε μια σχετικά καθαρή εικόνα των γεγονότων και διαμορφώνεται από την γνώση του αποτελέσματος αυτών. Τότε αισθανόμαστε μια ακατανίκητη ανάγκη να τα «δέσουμε» μεταξύ τους με όρους και σχέσεις αιτιότητας, ξεχνώντας, όμως, ποια ήταν η πραγματική μας εκτίμηση όταν τα βιώναμε.

Φορώντας τα γυαλιά της ιστορικότητας μας βλέπουμε τα γεγονότα διαφορετικά (όχι απαραίτητα σωστά) αδυνατώντας να αποδεχτούμε την πρότερη τύφλωση μας, εξαιτίας του ότι η τωρινή μας γνώση- βεβαιότητα έχει σβήσει από την μνήμη μας τις παρελθοντικές μας προβλέψεις.

Ακόμα και σήμερα, όμως, που η λύση του προβλήματος είναι τόσο επιτακτική ώστε να μας εμποδίζει να δούμε οποιοιδήποτε άλλη συνισταμένη του, εμένα συνεχίζει να με ενοχλεί ότι τυφλωθήκαμε από την γνώση μας ή καλύτερα από την αδυναμία μας να συνυπολογίσουμε την άγνοιά μας με αποτέλεσμα να μην μπορέσουμε να διακρίνουμε τον Μαύρο Κύκνο στα αδικαιολόγητα ήσυχα νερά της λίμνης μας…

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174 απαντήσεις στο “Το φαινόμενο του «Μαύρου Κύκνου»”

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