Το φάντασμα του bail-in πάνω από τις τράπεζες

editorial-12-2
Διαβάστε επίσης

Γράφει ο Ceteris Paribus

Οι ελληνικές τράπεζες έχουν περάσει πολλές κρίσεις πανικού την τελευταία πενταετία. Ωστόσο, η τωρινή, στο πλαίσιο του γενικότερου sell off στις τραπεζικές μετοχές πανευρωπαϊκά, είναι η πλέον οξεία. Ο λόγος είναι πολύ απλός: από 1/1/2016 έχει ενεργοποιηθεί και ισχύει για όλες τις ευρωπαϊκές τράπεζες -είτε είναι συστημικές, δηλαδή εποπτεύονται από την Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα (ΕΚΤ), είτε όχι- το περιβόητο bail-in σε περίπτωση που απαιτηθεί διαδικασία έκτακτης ενίσχυσης μιας τράπεζας που απειλείται με κατάρρευση. Άλλωστε, αυτός ήταν ο λόγος που η πρόσφατη διαδικασία ανακεφαλαίωσης των ελληνικών τραπεζών διεκπεραιώθηκε ταχύτατα και κατά παράκαμψη της διαδικασίας της πρώτης αξιολόγησης του ελληνικού προγράμματος: για να γίνει εντός του 2015…

Το πλέον προφανές δεδομένο είναι ότι οι 4 ελληνικές συστημικές τράπεζες είναι πρωταθλήτριες στην ευρωπαϊκή τραπεζική πτώση στα χρηματιστήρια το τελευταίο διάστημα. Πρώτη στην ευρωπαϊκή λίστα φιγουράρει η Πειραιώς, με πτώση πάνω από 65% μέσα στο 2016, δεύτερη είναι η Eurobank με πτώση 63%, τρίτη η Εθνική με πτώση 58% και ακολουθεί, πέμπτη στην ευρωπαϊκή λίστα, η Alpha, με πτώση 55%.

Θα μπορούσε να πει κανείς ότι τέτοια επίπεδα πτώσης των μετοχών των ελληνικών τραπεζών, παρότι πολύ μεγάλα, δεν απέχουν και πολύ από την πτώση της μετοχής τραπεζικών μεγαθηρίων όπως η Deutsche Bank, της οποίας η μετοχή έπεσε 38% μέσα στο 2016 και πάνω από 50% τους τελευταίους 6 μήνες… Όμως, το πρόβλημα είναι ακριβώς αυτό: αν για την «κραταιά» Deutsche Bank μια τέτοια πτώση συνδυάζεται με προβλήματα που εγείρουν ακόμη και το ερώτημα της κατάρρευσής της μέσα στο 2016 (!) πόσο μπορούν να αντέξουν οι… πολύπαθες ελληνικές τράπεζες; Διότι η κατακρήμνιση των μετοχών δεν είναι παρά η κορυφή του «παγόβουνου».

Βεβαίως η υπερβολική πτώση των μετοχών των 4 ελληνικών συστημικών τραπεζών οφείλεται και στο προφανές γεγονός ότι στο κύμα φυγής των διεθνών κεφαλαίων από τις τραπεζικές μετοχές είναι λογικό οι τράπεζες της περιφέρειας να είναι πρώτη επιλογή για μια τέτοια φυγή – αυτό όμως εξηγεί χωρίς να… παρηγορεί, γιατί σημαίνει ότι η φυγή ξένων επενδυτών από τις ελληνικές τράπεζες έχει δομικά χαρακτηριστικά.

Εκτός όμως από τις 4 συστημικές τράπεζες, υπάρχει και η… Attica Bank, για τα «έργα και τις ημέρες» της οποίας έχουμε αναφερθεί επανειλημμένα – την τελευταία φορά πολύ πρόσφατα. Η προσπάθεια της κυβέρνησης να «επιστρατεύσει» επιφανείς Έλληνες επιχειρηματίες και φορείς του δημόσιου τομέα να συμμετάσχουν στην αύξηση κεφαλαίου ώστε να αποφύγει η τράπεζα το bail-in, στέφθηκε από μερική επιτυχία, αφού δεν καλύφθηκε όλο το απαιτούμενο ποσό των περίπου 740 εκατ. ευρώ. Η τράπεζα είναι στη μεταβατική φάση να εξασφαλίσει τα υπολειπόμενα κεφάλαια, και σε αυτή τη φάση τη βρήκε το τραπεζικό sell off του 2016.

Οι πληροφορίες μας λένε ότι η εκατόμβη απωλειών στις τραπεζικές μετοχές και η μαζική έξοδος των διεθνών -και όχι μόνο- επενδυτών έχει δημιουργήσει κλίμα πανικού στις διοικήσεις. Η αγορά λέει ότι η Attica Bank πολύ δύσκολα θα αποφύγει το bail-in (οι περισσότεροι το θεωρούν πλέον βέβαιο) ενώ και η Πειραιώς είναι στα πρόθυρα του «απόλυτου πανικού». Πιο «ψύχραιμη» απ’ όλες η Εθνική, που πατάει πάνω στη ρευστότητα που απέκτησε πρόσφατα με την πώληση της Finance Bank, και ύστερα η Eurobank.

Σε μια συγκυρία που γύρω μας μαίνονται όλες οι θύελλες, οι ελληνικές τράπεζες περνούν τη μεγάλη δοκιμασία. Και δεν είναι καν στο χέρι τους τι θα συμβεί, αφού όλα εξαρτώνται από την πορεία της διεθνούς τραπεζικής κρίσης!

Παλαιότερα άρθρα:

346 απαντήσεις στο “Το φάντασμα του bail-in πάνω από τις τράπεζες”

  1. I simply want to mention I am newbie to weblog and absolutely savored this website. Almost certainly I’m want to bookmark your site . You really have terrific posts. With thanks for sharing your website.

  2. You really make it show up really easy using your presentation however i locate this kind of issue being really something which I believe I might in no way realize. It appears as well intricate and extremely great personally. My partner and i’m taking a look in advance on your subsequent submit, We?|ll attempt to get the hang on to than it!

  3. Great – I should certainly pronounce, impressed with your web site. I had no trouble navigating through all the tabs as well as related information ended up being truly simple to do to access. I recently found what I hoped for before you know it in the least. Quite unusual. Is likely to appreciate it for those who add forums or anything, web site theme . a tones way for your customer to communicate. Excellent task.

  4. Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a number of unrelated information, nevertheless seriously worth taking a search, whoa did 1 find out about Mid East has got additional problerms too.

  5. I do accept as true with all of the ideas you’ve offered on your post. They are very convincing and will certainly work. Nonetheless, the posts are too short for beginners. Could you please prolong them a little from next time? Thanks for the post.

  6. Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a handful of unrelated data, nevertheless seriously worth taking a appear, whoa did 1 study about Mid East has got much more problerms at the same time.

  7. Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine some unrelated data, nevertheless definitely worth taking a search, whoa did a single find out about Mid East has got a lot more problerms too.

  8. Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a number of unrelated information, nonetheless genuinely worth taking a look, whoa did a single understand about Mid East has got more problerms also.

  9. Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a handful of unrelated data, nonetheless really really worth taking a search, whoa did one understand about Mid East has got additional problerms at the same time.

  10. Wine Shop WeVino – High quality wines. Worldwide shipping. – Wine shop WeVino.Selection of award-winning and high quality wines. Worldwide fast delivery. Welcome to our shop. (WEVINO.STORE- Telephone number:+386 64 177 151 ) (Italia Via San Lazzaro 13 –34132 Trieste)

  11. “I precisely needed to say thanks yet again. I am not sure what I could possibly have created in the absence of those tactics provided by you on this situation. Completely was the fearsome scenario in my view, but taking a look at a new expert tactic you resolved the issue forced me to jump for contentment. Now i am happier for the support and as well , pray you find out what a powerful job you are always accomplishing teaching men and women through your web page. I know that you haven’t got to know all of us.”

  12. Wonderful beat ! I wish to apprentice whilst you amend your site, how could i subscribe for a blog web site? The account helped me a appropriate deal. I had been tiny bit acquainted of this your broadcast provided vivid clear concept|

  13. An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a colleague who was doing a little homework on this. And he in fact ordered me lunch due to the fact that I stumbled upon it for him… lol. So let me reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending time to discuss this issue here on your web site.|

  14. Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a couple of unrelated information, nevertheless seriously really worth taking a appear, whoa did 1 learn about Mid East has got extra problerms at the same time.

  15. Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a couple of unrelated data, nevertheless actually worth taking a search, whoa did one particular understand about Mid East has got additional problerms as well.

  16. Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a couple of unrelated information, nonetheless truly worth taking a look, whoa did 1 study about Mid East has got far more problerms also.

  17. Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a few unrelated information, nevertheless definitely really worth taking a appear, whoa did a single discover about Mid East has got far more problerms at the same time.

  18. Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a handful of unrelated information, nonetheless definitely worth taking a search, whoa did one master about Mid East has got far more problerms as well.

  19. Although web-sites we backlink to below are considerably not associated to ours, we really feel they are truly really worth a go by means of, so possess a look.

  20. I absolutely love your blog and find the majority of your post’s to be just what I’m looking for. can you offer guest writers to write content available for you? I wouldn’t mind publishing a post or elaborating on a few of the subjects you write concerning here. Again, awesome weblog!|

  21. Excellent beat ! I wish to apprentice at the same time as you amend your website, how can i subscribe for a weblog web site? The account aided me a applicable deal. I had been tiny bit acquainted of this your broadcast offered bright transparent concept|

  22. I’m amazed, I have to admit. Seldom do I encounter a blog that’s both equally educative and entertaining, and without a doubt, you have hit the nail on the head. The issue is something that not enough people are speaking intelligently about. I’m very happy that I found this in my search for something concerning this.|

  23. Excellent goods from you, man. I’ve understand your stuff previous to and you are just extremely wonderful. I actually like what you have acquired here, certainly like what you are stating and the way in which you say it. You make it enjoyable and you still take care of to keep it wise. I can’t wait to read far more from you. This is really a tremendous website.|

  24. Oh my goodness! Amazing article dude! Thank you so much, However I am experiencing troubles with your RSS. I don’t understand why I can’t join it. Is there anybody having similar RSS issues? Anyone that knows the solution will you kindly respond? Thanks!!|

  25. Hey there would you mind letting me know which webhost you’re using? I’ve loaded your blog in 3 completely different internet browsers and I must say this blog loads a lot quicker then most. Can you suggest a good internet hosting provider at a fair price? Cheers, I appreciate it!|

  26. Thanks a lot for sharing this with all folks you actually understand what you are speaking about! Bookmarked. Please also consult with my site =). We may have a link exchange contract between us|

  27. I’m pretty pleased to discover this web site. I wanted to thank you for ones time for this particularly fantastic read!! I definitely loved every bit of it and i also have you book-marked to look at new stuff on your web site.|

  28. Hello! Someone in my Facebook group shared this site with us so I came to check it out. I’m definitely loving the information. I’m book-marking and will be tweeting this to my followers! Wonderful blog and excellent style and design.|

  29. Hey! I know this is kinda off topic nevertheless I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in exchanging links or maybe guest writing a blog article or vice-versa? My website discusses a lot of the same subjects as yours and I believe we could greatly benefit from each other. If you might be interested feel free to send me an email. I look forward to hearing from you! Fantastic blog by the way!|

  30. Hello just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The words in your article seem to be running off the screen in Safari. I’m not sure if this is a formatting issue or something to do with browser compatibility but I thought I’d post to let you know. The design look great though! Hope you get the problem fixed soon. Thanks|

  31. Just desire to say your article is as astounding. The clarity for your post is simply cool and that i can suppose you’re a professional in this subject. Fine with your permission allow me to seize your RSS feed to keep updated with coming near near post. Thanks a million and please continue the enjoyable work.|

  32. Hello, i believe that i noticed you visited my weblog thus i came to go back the choose?.I am trying to to find issues to enhance my website!I guess its ok to make use of a few of your ideas!!|

  33. Hi there! I know this is kinda off topic but I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in exchanging links or maybe guest writing a blog post or vice-versa? My site addresses a lot of the same subjects as yours and I believe we could greatly benefit from each other. If you might be interested feel free to send me an email. I look forward to hearing from you! Excellent blog by the way!|

  34. I love your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you make this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you? Plz respond as I’m looking to design my own blog and would like to know where u got this from. thank you|

Σχολιάστε