Υπό κατάρρευση η Deutsche Bank;

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Γράφει ο Ceteris Paribus

Από την αρχή του νέου χρόνου, τα χρηματιστήρια σε όλο τον κόσμο παραπαίουν σε κλίμα ανησυχίας και αρχόμενου πανικού. Οι χρηματιστηριακοί δείκτες των βορειοαμερικανικών, των νοτιοαμερικανικών, των ευρωπαϊκών και των ασιατικών (με το κινεζικό να πρωταγωνιστεί) χρηματιστηρίων γνωρίζουν στις πρώτες 40 μέρες του 2016 μεσοσταθμική πτώση πάνω από 10%. Στην πτώση αυτή πρωταγωνιστούν κατά κανόνα οι εταιρείες που δραστηριοποιούνται στον τομέα του πετρελαίου, των ορυκτών και των μετάλλων αλλά και οι τράπεζες. Αν για την πρώτη κατηγορία εταιρειών οι αιτίες είναι μάλλον προφανείς (κατάρρευση των διεθνών τιμών των πρώτων υλών), για τις τράπεζες δεν είναι το ίδιο προφανείς.

Στη χορεία των παγκόσμιων τραπεζικών γιγάντων, η Deutsche Bank εκδηλώνει τα πιο προφανή σημάδια αστάθειας – και μάλιστα πολύ επικίνδυνης. Τα δεδομένα είναι από μόνα τους πολύ εύγλωττα:

  • Τιμή μετοχής και λόγος τιμής μετοχής προς λογιστική αξία, υπό κατάρρευση: η μετοχή της έπεσε κατά 50% (από 30 δολάρια σε 15 δολάρια) από τον Οκτώβριο του 2015, ενώ ο λόγος τιμή μετοχής προς λογιστική αξία έχει μειωθεί στο 0,34%.
  • Ζημιές, 6 δισ. ευρώ μέσα για το 2015.
  • Ύψος προβλέψεων για διαγραφή «τοξικού» ενεργητικού, περίπου 10 δισ. ευρώ.
  • Έκθεση σε παράγωγα προϊόντα (derivatives), 55 τρισ. δολάρια.
  • Μεγάλη έκθεση στις αναδυόμενες αγορές (Κίνα, Ρωσία, Βραζιλία κ.λπ.).
  • Δαπάνες-«μαμούθ» για πρόστιμα: τον Απρίλιο του 2015 της επιβλήθηκε πρόστιμο 2,5 δισ. δολάρια για χειραγώγηση των επιτοκίων Libor, ενώ μόλις πρόσφατα το αμερικανικό Δημόσιο κατέθεσε εναντίον της αγωγή για μη κάλυψη των υποχρεώσεών της προς ενυπόθηκα δάνεια ύψους 3,5 δισ. ευρώ.
  • Ο γνωστός οίκος αξιολόγησης Standard & Poor’s υποβάθμισε την πιστοληπτική της ικανότητα από Α- σε ΒΒΒ+
  • Τα ασφάλιστρα κινδύνου (CDS) με τα οποία «καλύπτονται» οι επενδύσεις στη μετοχή της τράπεζας αυξήθηκαν κατακόρυφα το τελευταίο διάστημα.

Και με λίγα λόγια, η «κραταιά» Deutsche Bank «παραπατάει», σε σημείο ώστε να γίνεται λόγος στο διεθνή Τύπο ακόμη και για ενδεχόμενο κατάρρευσής της μέσα στο 2016! Ας αναλογιστούμε πόσο «τοξικό» ενεργητικό, πόσοι «σκελετοί στην ντουλάπα» υπάρχουν χωρίς να έχουν αποκαλυφθεί ακόμη και ας συγκρίνουμε τα μεγέθη που παραθέσαμε παραπάνω με το γερμανικό ΑΕΠ (2,7 τρισ. ευρώ) και το ευρωπαϊκό ΑΕΠ (14 τρισ. ευρώ) για να καταλάβουμε τι κίνδυνοι ελλοχεύουν για την ίδια τη Γερμανία, την Ευρωζώνη αλλά και την παγκόσμια οικονομία αν το «παραπάτημα» της Deutsche Bank γίνει πιο0 έντονο ώστε να «μυρίζει» κατάρρευση…

Αλλά βέβαια η Deutsche Bank δεν είναι ο μόνος τραπεζικός γίγαντας που αντιμετωπίζει σοβαρό πρόβλημα. Πάνω από 4 τρισεκατομμύρια δολάρια διατέθηκαν από τις κεντρικές τράπεζες (FED και ΕΚΤ) σε κάθε πλευρά του Ατλαντικού για να σωθεί το τραπεζικό σύστημα από την κατάρρευση ύστερα από το ξέσπασμα της κρίσης του 2008 και μέχρι σήμερα. Το αποτέλεσμα είναι μια εντελώς σχετική, προσωρινή και αβέβαιη σταθεροποίηση, που τώρα δοκιμάζεται ξανά από τα συμπτώματα υποτροπής της παγκόσμιας κρίσης. Το τραπεζικό σύστημα διεθνώς, με τις ίδιες τις κεντρικές τράπεζες αλλά και τους μεγάλους τραπεζικούς γίγαντες σε πρώτο πλάνο, βρίσκεται στα πρόθυρα μιας νέας κρίσης. Όπως και το 2008, το μεγάλο πρόβλημα είναι ότι έχει εντάξει στο χαρτοφυλάκιό του ιλιγγιώδη ποσά παραγώγων, τα οποία εγκυμονούν κινδύνους για τεράστιες ζημίες. Ιδού μερικά εύγλωττα δεδομένα:

  • Σύμφωνα με την Phoenix Capital, η «φούσκα» των κρατικών ομολόγων, που το 2008 αντιστοιχούσε σε 80 τρισεκατομμύρια δολάρια, τώρα υπολογίζεται σε πάνω από 100 τρισ. δολάρια! Ακόμη χειρότερα, πάνω σε αυτή τη βάση έχει χτιστεί ένας εφιαλτικός «πύργος» παράγωγων προϊόντων αξίας 555 τρισ. δολαρίων. Την ίδια στιγμή, η αξία των εταιρικών ομολόγων (ομόλογα των επιχειρήσεων) από 3,5 τρισ. δολάρια το 2008 έχει αυξηθεί σε πάνω από 7 τρισ. δολάρια σήμερα (αύξηση 100%)!
  • Το τραπεζικό σύστημα έχει αυξήσει την έκθεσή του στον «μεγάλο ασθενή» της παγκόσμιας οικονομίας, τις Αναδυόμενες οικονομίες. Σύμφωνα με στοιχεία της BIS (Τράπεζα Διεθνών Διακανονισμών), το τραπεζικό σύστημα των χωρών του ΟΟΣΑ έχει αυξήσει κατακόρυφα την έκθεσή του στην Κίνα και τις υπόλοιπες Αναδυόμενες οικονομίες: τετραπλασίασε την έκθεσή του στην Κίνα (από 219 δισ. δολ. σε 762 δισ. δολ.) και τη διπλασίασε απέναντι στις λοιπές ασιατικές χώρες (από 1,18 τρισ. δολ. σε 2 τρισ. δολ.).

Όσο για τις κεντρικές τράπεζες, αυτές εμφανίζονται εκτεθειμένες το ίδιο ή και περισσότερο από όσο ήταν η Lehman Brothers όταν κατέρρευσε το 2008, εξαιτίας των πολιτικών διάσωσης με αφειδώς έκδοση χρήματος: η μόχλευση της Fed είναι 78 προς 1 και της ΕΚΤ 26 προς 1, όταν της Lehman ήταν 30 προς 1.

Το ερώτημα είναι εύλογο: είναι η Deutsche Bank η «κορυφή του παγόβουνου» μιας νέας διεθνούς τραπεζικής κρίσης; Ερώτημα το οποίο από μόνο του είναι εξαιρετικά απειλητικό και δυσοίωνο.

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  1. Κομμουνισμός ως προς τις ζημιές (τα φορτώνουμε στους λαούς) – “ελεύθερη αγορά” ως προς τα κέρδη των τραπεζών (τα τρώνε μόνες τους οι τράπεζες). Φοβερό το καπιταλιστικό σύστημα… Κι από ότι βλέπω δεν οφείλεται καν σε κρατικά ομόλογα η ζημιά, αλλά σε παράγωγα, προκειμένου να έχουνε το max κέρδος. Το οποίο βεβαίως συνεπάγεται και max ρίσκο. Αλλά όταν η μεταβλητή “ρίσκο” μεταβιβάζεται στις πλάτες των λαών, τότε έχουμε την SUPER παγκόσμια επιχείρηση και win-win καταστάσεις για την εταιρεία-τράπεζα, ό,τι και να γίνει. Και γαμώ τις “ελεύθερες αγορές”… :)

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